Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within a range, part of a secondary-level pullback within a consolidation phase. The bottom range acts as a strong support point, where potential market movements may develop near this support. At this stage, there is little need to participate; it is sufficient to observe and wait for market opportunities. Significant opportunities arise only when price volatility increases, so it is important to remain patient and wait for the market to present opportunities.
The newly listed coin LAYER has experienced a decline followed by a rise, resulting in a significant decrease in market capitalization. Whales have begun to take action, and the funding rates for contract trading pairs on major platforms have plummeted to extremely exaggerated levels. Binance has currently adjusted its funding rates to collect them every four hours.
Consequently, it is evident that there is a strong bearish sentiment towards newly listed coins on Binance. This has gradually fostered a mindset among traders that shorting new coins on Binance is profitable. However, most retail investors are often late to the game, as they tend to adopt bullish or bearish trends at the tail end of market movements. Therefore, if you have not previously profited from shorting new coins on Binance, it is advisable not to engage in such trades now. I believe Binance will likely seek an opportunity to capitalize on these latecomer retail investors, as the current market sentiment has reached a saturation point.
I advise everyone that trading contracts is a particularly challenging technical endeavor. There are numerous ways for the market to “cut” you, and with leverage involved, the probability of winning against the market is exceedingly close to zero. If you lack experience in consistently generating secondary profits over the long term, I do not recommend participating in the contract market, whether going long or short. It is better to invest in blue-chip spot assets and pursue alpha on-chain.
Will there be another altcoin season in the future? This can be analyzed from three perspectives:
1. Market liquidity is being gradually siphoned off by Binance. In 2024, Binance launched at least dozens of VC coins, each with a circulating market cap of several billion and an FDV exceeding tens of billions, which slowly unlocks and absorbs market liquidity—this is a chronic poison.
2. In January 2025, Binance reportedly sold $8 billion worth of mainstream currencies, which were then paid as fines to the U.S. Department of Justice, SEC, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, effectively draining market liquidity from a few U.S. regulatory bodies.
3. Once the BTC ETF is approved, Wall Street funds can purchase BTC without going through Binance, buying directly through the ETF, meaning that this money will not flow into altcoins on exchanges.
The above analyses are subjective opinions and may not necessarily be accurate.
Finally, here is a bit of advice for novice traders:
When engaging in trading, focus on narratives and angles, such as Elon Musk changing the name to X or Donald Trump, as internationalization can lead to higher ceilings. The potential ceiling determines the amount of capital you can invest. Pay attention to position sizing and monitor smart wallets, as continued buying by smart wallets may indicate further upward movement.
Market intuition is also crucial. After making several trades, you will quickly learn to assess whether to act upon seeing a new opportunity and make rapid decisions regarding position sizing and profit-taking strategies.
Ensure that your wallet has funds ready for quick decisions. When opportunities arise, you need to act within seconds. Timing is a key factor in determining your position and profit or loss.
Always conduct a review after trading. Analyze each coin the same day, extract new insights, and correct any previous misconceptions about position sizes—when to increase or decrease positions and when to take profits early, among other considerations. Your mindset ultimately determines your potential ceiling.
Novices do not need to complicate matters; focusing on mastering the basics can also yield profits. There is no need for overly intricate strategies; some seasoned traders achieve high win rates using just a few techniques.
