Popular Macro Expert Lyn Alden Analyzes Current Bitcoin Correction
Popular macroeconomic expert Lyn Alden believes the current correction in Bitcoin (BTC) resembles a witness based on a key chain metric from March 2024.
In a recent interview on your life! Your terms! YouTube channel, Alden stated that she is closely monitoring the market value of Bitcoin against the realized value (MVRV) metric. This on-chain indicator helps assess whether BTC is overvalued by comparing its market cap (market value) with the average price of all coins (realized value).
The macro guru explained that during the initial phases of a bull market, Bitcoin’s market cap tends to surge, and as early investors hold onto their coins, the average cost basis lags, resulting in a higher MVRV value.
Alden noted that when MVRV spikes to extreme levels, it prompts more long-term investors to offload their holdings, which could signal the onset of a multi-year bear market.
The macro expert asserted that the metric remains within its typical bull market range, leading her to believe that BTC can still soar to greater heights.
“When you see coins at increasingly higher price levels, it helps to lower that ratio because basically the average cost basis is catching up to some extent with the wild explosion in market cap. Therefore, what I usually point out is that we haven’t really seen extremes this year. Back in March 2024, when we first broke into a new all-time high in several years, Bitcoin reached $73,000. The metric was a bit euphoric but not historically at the top for years. So we saw a seven-month consolidation, but nothing worse than that.”
“Similarly, when Bitcoin recently hit $108,000 more often, the metric was a bit high, but again, what we typically don’t see are those multi-year dislocations. For me, I focus more on the probability of a breakout versus a collapse. So my view is that the likelihood of a breakout is higher, and arguably, I think we aren’t prepared for a multi-year bear market until we potentially reach higher prices.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $81,357.
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