Bitcoin (BTC) Drops to $82,550
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $82,550 late on Friday, testing the lower end of its recent $80,000-$87,000 range, and trading down 0.65% over the past 24 hours.
Despite historically bullish indicators flashing earlier, this move remains lower, with options market data continuing to reflect trader caution in the shadow of new tariffs in the U.S.
Recent options market activity suggests current weakness. Blockchain analytics platform Glassnode reported that the volume of options trading at a premium indicates an increased demand for downside protection.
Options Data Analysis
This trend is particularly strong in the short term, reflecting the level of fear not seen in Bitcoin’s mid-2023 range of $20,000. This suggests that traders are resisting potential downside risks, which could translate into short-term selling pressure.
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Arthur Hayes stated he “likes tariffs,” explaining why they benefit BTC. Additionally, reporter Colin Wu noted that 26,000 BTC options are set to expire on April 4, with a put/call ratio of 1.24 (indicating a bearish bias) and a maximum pain point of about $84,000. With BTC now trading below this maximum pain level, the subsequent price dynamics may remain volatile.
Hash Ribbons Buy Signal Followed by Price Drop
Analyst Ted added complexity, recently highlighting that the Bitcoin hash ribbons indicator has flashed a buy signal. However, although this mining-related signal has historically often appeared before strong rallies, the subsequent price drop to $82,550 calls into question its direct predictive ability or suggests potential delayed effects.
Technical Indicators Show EMA Resistance, Testing Support
Currently, Bitcoin is trading below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), previously known as $84,594, which now presents significant resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) may be below previously reported neutral levels, reflecting weakened price action, although potential buying attempts could still occur near support.
Bollinger Bands indicate BTC is close to its lower band support at around $80,962. Maintaining above the $82K level is crucial, as this lower band support is key to preventing further declines. Resistance is now firmly established at the 20-day EMA (around $84.6K) and the upper Bollinger Band (approximately $88K).
Macro Context: Tariff Looming, BTC Acts as Risk Asset
The broader macro environment remains uncertain. Michael Saylor’s viewpoint suggests that Bitcoin often trades like a risk asset sold in panic, as the market anticipates the impact of President Trump’s new tariffs (set to begin at least 10% on April 5 for specific countries such as Cambodia, Laos, Madagascar, etc.).
Related:
Bitcoin Trump Tariff Test: Dropping to $82K, Can $78K Support Hold?
This external pressure contributes to a cautious trading environment.
