Bitcoin’s Dominance Now Exceeds 63%, Signaling a Bearish Environment for Altcoins Across All Metrics
Stablecoin liquidity suggests a risk phase, delaying any major Altcoin breakthroughs.
It appears that Bitcoin [BTC] is now tightening its grip on the broader cryptocurrency market. In fact, with its dominance exceeding 63%, the latest market structure may indicate a tough struggle for altcoins. This shift was highlighted by Alphractal’s CEO Joao Wedson in a tweet comparing Bitcoin’s price with the Altcoin season index.
At the time of writing, less than 25% of Altcoins seem to outperform Bitcoin – a textbook Bitcoin season.
Four Survivors in a Sea of Red
According to Alphractal, out of 57 Altcoins, only 4 have outperformed Bitcoin, which itself has seen a decline of -17.6% on the charts. Among the few that performed better, Pancakeswap [CAKE] posted the only positive return at +10.5%.
In short, the performance has been lackluster. Most Altcoins returned between -20% to -72%, with the leading loss in June at -72.4%. Despite Bitcoin’s own decline on the charts, it remains a relative safe haven.
Conversely, the Altcoin “dominance” tells us the same story. Since November, the Altcoin market share has dropped from 41% to 37%. Excluding stablecoins, it has actually decreased from 35% to 28%.
The Erosion of Altcoin Credibility
Filtering out Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins presents a uniform picture, as the same stocks have dropped from 23% to 20%. Given everything that has transpired, this decline merely confirms the lack of investor confidence in non-Bitcoin assets.
Trading momentum has also faded recently. On December 5, the Altcoin market capitalization peaked at $1.43 trillion, with a volume of $542.63 billion. However, by April 3, these figures had declined to $975.64 billion and $137.31 billion, representing decreases of 32% and 296%, respectively.
These numbers illustrate a picture of waning investor confidence. The peak in December did not sustain. By March, this trend had evidently turned south in terms of both price and participation.
Bitcoin’s rise in dominance also coincides with a notable signal from the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR).
When Peaks Turn to Warnings
February 23 marked a turning point as both Bitcoin price and SSR peaked simultaneously. Bitcoin reached a high of $96,209 while the SSR was at 16.03. However, within three days, both experienced a sharp reversal. By April, BTC had dropped to $81,800 and SSR fell to 14.21.
This comparison can be viewed as a signal of how liquidity shifts indicate trend exhaustion. Importantly, despite Bitcoin’s own losses, its market dominance rose without decline.
Every indicator draws the same conclusion – Altcoin seasons are rare, brief, and fragile. Bitcoin’s dominance (now exceeding 63%) reflects a consolidated market, with capital flowing into safety.
Is Bitcoin Still the Chest Protector?
There exists short-term optimism surrounding altcoins. However, the data also suggests that any rally could remain isolated and brief without a structural shift in dominance and liquidity. For now, smart money seems to be parked in Bitcoin or waiting on the sidelines.
