20 Chance of Bitcoin Options Signaling a Surge to 80000 After the Election

Coin World News Report:
The implied volatility of Bitcoin options has risen by nearly 50% before and after the US election.
Option traders predict that there is a 20% chance that BTC will reach $80,000 by the end of November.
With only two weeks left until the US presidential election,
Bitcoin [BTC]
option traders remain bullish and expect to reach the target of $80,000 by November.
Nearly 71% of people point out that the election is a key market uncertainty.
As of November 8th, FWD IV (Forward Implied Volatility)
This means that the market expects prices to fluctuate significantly before and after the US election. Therefore, volatility may be upward or downward as institutional investors hedge risks.
Market volatility is expected to gradually decrease after two key events: the election (November 5th) and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision (November 8th). The downward movement of FWD IV after November 8th indicates this.
Bullish options bets
However, despite election concerns, as recently pointed out by cryptocurrency trading company QCP Capital, the BTC options market has always maintained a bullish outlook. It
Stipulated
;
“The short-term implied volatility peaks on the day of the election, 10 trading volumes away from the previous expiration date, and tends to be bullish options rather than bearish options, although BTC is about 8% lower than its historical high.”
At the time of writing, Deribit
data
depicts a similar outlook, with bullish options (betting on a rebound in future BTC prices) dominating bearish options (betting on a decline) for contracts expiring on November 29th.
Option traders predict that there is a 20% chance that BTC will reach $80,000 by the end of November.
In response to this positioning, André Dragosch, Head of Bitwise Europe Research, stated that this is an expectation of a “bullish outcome.”
Donald Trump can be said to be the most supportive candidate for cryptocurrencies. On the polling and prediction website Polymarket, he maintains a 20-point lead over Kamala Harris.
In other words, if BTC rises to $80,000 and breaks through the psychological level of $70,000, nearly $7 billion in short positions will be squeezed.
However, BTC’s short-term performance has weakened during the ongoing US earnings season. At the time of writing, BTC is valued at $67,000, about 10% below its all-time high (ATH) of $737,000.