CoinGeek News Report:
Despite several notable increases, Bitcoin has yet to break the anticipated $70,000 mark.
However, according to the Coinbase Premium Index, data suggests a potential short-term upward trend for BTC. In this scenario, cryptocurrency assets may experience a price surge.
Is a Bitcoin price surge imminent?
CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent examined the Coinbase Premium Index within a one-hour timeframe.
Observation:
Significant price fluctuations occur when the daily (24-hour) moving average crosses above the weekly (168-hour) moving average.
Historical data shows that this cross often forms a golden cross, which tends to trigger short-term price increases. Currently, the daily moving average has temporarily exceeded the weekly moving average, indicating potential bullish momentum.
With Bitcoin’s price around $67,000, a key support level linked to the September high, and having maintained higher highs and lows since August, analysts predict the market is establishing a clear upward structure.
Analysts from Kaiko also expressed similar views.
Highlights:
Negative Kimchi Premium. In fact, despite the current slump in the Korean market, this could also signal a potential Bitcoin rebound.
This premium measures the difference in BTC prices between Korean exchanges and global platforms. Since September, this premium has turned negative for the second time. This trend reflects a decline in Korean investor sentiment, as the trading price of Bitcoin continues to decline despite global price increases.
Contributing factors include strict government capital controls, which restrict foreign trading on local exchanges, and limited cryptocurrency supply available on platforms like Upbit, which offers significantly fewer cryptocurrencies compared to its global counterparts. Historically, negative Kimchi Premium often precedes significant price surges in Bitcoin.
Increased retail participation:
Equally noteworthy is the apparent resurgence of retail activity in BTC.
After experiencing four months of low participation, there has been a noticeable increase in retail chain activity. On-chain transaction volume below $10,000 has seen an increase, indicating renewed interest from smaller non-institutional investors.
In the past 30 days, retail demand has grown by 13%, marking a significant recovery compared to the previous months’ decline. This level of participation is similar to the activity level seen in March when BTC approached its all-time high.
While whale trading remains strong during calm periods, the recent rise in Bitcoin prices suggests a decrease in risk aversion among small investors, which could lead to a strengthening of retail momentum in the market.
