Coin World News Report:
In the past seven days, Bitcoin has surged by about 13%, with some investors seeing this upward trend as a signal of the market’s expectation for Republican candidate Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.
This increase in digital assets far exceeds global stock indices and gold. Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller pointed out that cryptocurrencies are one of the signs the market is predicting Trump’s victory.
In a tense campaign against Democratic opponent Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump has promised to make the United States the global capital of cryptocurrencies. His support for the industry has led Bitcoin to be seen as one of the “Trump trades,” a series of bets based on his return to the White House.
Bitcoin leads other assets in October
Bitcoin’s surge has come with changes in the prediction market, where controversial platforms allow people to bet on election results. On the Polymarket platform, Trump’s chances of winning have soared to 58%, while Harris has fallen to 41%. On PredictIt, Trump’s odds are 54%, while Harris is at 49%.
ETF inflows:
“The heat in the prediction market has brought high levels of implied volatility and has also driven up the spot price of Bitcoin,” said Arisa Toyosaki, co-founder of Cega, a cryptocurrency derivatives service provider. “A large amount of money has recently flowed into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which has also pushed up the price of Bitcoin.”
Since October 11, a group of US ETFs that flow into Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $1.6 billion. As of Thursday, the price of Bitcoin was about $67,260, with a historical high in March of $73,798.
Although the prediction market is leaning towards Trump, the gap in most opinion polls is still within the margin of error, with less than three weeks to go until Election Day. According to the average data from Real Clear Politics’ national polls, Harris leads Trump by about 1.6 percentage points. In the average data for key states, Trump leads by less than 1 percentage point.
Harris’s stance:
Harris takes a more cautious stance on cryptocurrency issues, promising to support the regulatory framework and industry development of digital assets with appropriate safeguards. Her position contrasts with the Biden administration’s crackdown, sparking optimism among cryptocurrency traders.
Meltem Demirors, general partner at Crucible Capital, said, “The emergence of cryptocurrencies as an election issue has sparked attention to Bitcoin and the broader category of cryptocurrencies. This attention has translated into market sentiment, and as we know, sentiment often drives capital flows.”
It is worth noting that Trump once called cryptocurrencies a scam, but his attitude towards the industry has changed significantly. Digital asset companies have become an important force in this election by making significant donations to political action committees and seeking friendlier regulatory rules.
During a Bloomberg TV interview on Wednesday, Druckenmiller said the market has been “very confident” in Trump’s victory over the past 12 days. “You can see that from the performance of bank stocks and cryptocurrencies,” he said.
