Bitcoin Plummets and Rebounds, Regains Position!
According to the latest poll conducted by Reuters, Harris is leading Trump with 46% compared to Trump’s 43%. Last week, Trump was leading with 50% against Harris’ 48%. Therefore, this data will also be referenced by some off-exchange institutions. However, on polymarket, Trump is indeed leading with a margin of 64.3% to 35.6%. Currently, many people are questioning whether the voters on polymarket are mostly non-Americans.
Regardless, Trump being overtaken in the polls definitely affects the cryptocurrency market. This is one of the reasons why large capital is starting to withdraw.
Yesterday, BTC continued its consolidation and retracement, with a larger-than-expected retracement. There were no obvious negative factors, indicating that it was purely a result of market selling pressure. For three consecutive days, the market has been on a retracement trend, indicating that it is somewhat difficult to reach the 70,000 mark. There is an extremely terrifying selling pressure around 70,000, and the drop that started from 69,500 on Monday was also accompanied by high trading volume. These past few days have been a downward oscillation trend.
I expect there to be a period of consolidation around 66,000, during which funds that exited the market due to election uncertainty will return.
As for the future of the cryptocurrency market, I have the following views:
In the future, the market will continue to move slowly, like a bull. You can understand it as BTC continuously shaking out weak hands and accumulating more and more chips at higher prices. Eventually, institutions will have control over BTC pricing. The future market is predicted as follows:
1. Suddenly stopping here is definitely unreasonable. Theoretically, after the bulldozer pattern, there should be an enlarged bullish candlestick.
2. The impact of the US election exists, so the market may be delayed until November when the election takes place.
3. If King understands the situation and wins, promising to buy a large amount of “cake” with 100E, it will be a huge positive factor, leading to an upward trend. Therefore, the sudden stop in the washout at this point seems suspicious.
4. If there are signals of a bottom in the short term, we will establish a short-term position together with the trend, and then observe the extension of the trend. If the trend is favorable, we will continue to hold the bottom position. Otherwise, we will trade in the short term.
5. As for how high or low it can rise or fall next, I really don’t know. All I can tell you is that the upward trend has not changed, and 65,500 will be a strong support level. Follow the general trend, counteract the minor trends, manage expectations and risk, and do everything we can. After all, in this market, none of us can control it.
There is a story widely circulated about a guy who invested $600 in a meme coin and turned it into nearly $2 million in the short term. This has made retail investors drool and think, “I also have $600, I can do it too!” Can small retail investors really get rich quick from meme coins? It is indeed possible, but it is very different from what you might imagine.
1. First of all, I have conducted a survey before. Nearly 80% of retail investors in PvP lose and suffer losses. You must first ensure that you are not part of that 80%.
2. Secondly, based on my own practical experience, I have played against market makers many times. If a retail investor captures 5% of the chips, the market maker will not manipulate the price. Look at those meme coins with high market capitalization, the percentage of chips in the pool is only a few. After spending money and manpower to manipulate the market, will the market maker let a retail investor empty the pool? Is that possible?
3. In my game against market makers, I found that when an individual address increases its position by 1% or 1.5%, small-scale market makers will stop manipulating the price. They will start to consolidate and grind. If you don’t exit, the market maker may abandon the market. Think about it, whose money are you making with $600 in this zero-sum game?
4. Generally, market makers will consume 90% of the chips before considering manipulating the price. They also need to deduct from the pool. Only then will they consider pumping up the price. The chips in the hands of retail investors are poisonous to market makers and are the operating costs of market manipulation. There aren’t many chips outside of the market makers’ control.
Many people also say, “The heyday of the cryptocurrency market is over. Now it’s really difficult to make money in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin, the leader of the cryptocurrency market, hasn’t outperformed Nvidia, the leader in the US stock market, and platform coin BNB hasn’t outperformed Coinbase stock. Even Ethereum hasn’t outperformed BNB.”
All I can say is that their approach is wrong. In the current market conditions, doing short-term trades and holding onto the best coins is the optimal answer!
