Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a recovery after dropping below $68,000, providing relief to the market. Despite the recent dip, there is still strong short-term demand. The question now is whether the bull market will maintain its momentum and reach new highs.
Google Trends can provide valuable insights into global interest, distribution, and popular Bitcoin topics. However, it’s important to note that peak search counts do not necessarily indicate an upcoming bull market. In fact, they can often signal a blow-off top, where media attention is at its highest and a correction is imminent. Bull rallies usually occur as a breakout after a period of sustained but relatively low interest in a narrative.
Interestingly, Bitcoin searches tend to be a lagging indicator. In the 2024 bull market, searches for the term “bitcoin” peaked in March. By May, search volumes for the same term had dropped by 50%, but still remained higher than during the bear market.
Retail buying of Bitcoin is still happening, but this time it seems to be driven by whales rather than mass adoption. In March, Google search results indicated a market peak, followed by a price correction and a decline in search trends. However, there is a subtle difference in Bitcoin audiences. While web and news searches for the term have decreased, YouTube searches continue to remain high. This suggests that the message of Bitcoin is still spreading through spoken media and potentially reaching a new group of buyers.
The current bull market has seen more involvement from crypto insiders and less mass hype. Interestingly, there has been a small increase in searches for the term “crypto” in the past three weeks, indicating a halt in the previous decline.
Towards the end of 2023, BTC was already expanding, but mass searches were slower. This is because Bitcoin was already a well-known opportunity and fewer people needed to research it from scratch. The current interest levels are seen as a “bull market waiting to happen,” aligning with predictions of new rallies in June and July.
The Bitcoin narrative is still alive and well for insiders, branching out into various directions in 2024. One prominent focus is the Bitcoin ETF narrative, which has overshadowed other smaller trends in the crypto space. BTC market prices have dropped from their all-time high, and overall blockchain activity has become more subdued. The narratives surrounding altcoins, tokens, and Runes have also slowed down.
However, there is a resurgence in transactions from institutional and medium-range whale wallets with transactions above $1 million. On the other hand, active addresses have decreased to 220,000 per day from their usual range of over 500,000 active wallets.
While smaller holders are holding onto their coins, larger investors are signaling a shift in direction. This pattern of institutional and whale wallets moving funds has previously occurred before BTC reached its all-time high in Q1.
One reason for the low retail interest in Bitcoin is its lack of accessibility. With its high price and occasional high transaction fees, retail buyers are turning their attention elsewhere. Searches for meme tokens, in particular, indicate interest in crypto and bullish expectations. Meme tokens offer the added benefit of lower entry prices and the potential for higher returns.
Searches for specific meme tokens like “Pepe token” and “dogwifhat” surged in early May, preceding the growth of these tokens. Additionally, searches for the term “meme coin” have been on an upward trend since the start of 2024, particularly in YouTube searches. This suggests that new retail investors are gaining exposure to the latest launches through video content, indicating that crypto is spreading to new demographics.
Overall, Bitcoin is experiencing a recovery, and the bull market is expected to continue with new rallies in the coming months. The Bitcoin narrative remains strong among insiders, while meme tokens are attracting retail buyers with their lower entry prices and potential for high returns.
Source: Cryptopolitan (Hristina Vasileva)
