Coin World Report:
On Friday, October 25th, the US dollar index fell to 104.05, while the price of gold remained strong at $2,735, and Bitcoin surged to over $68,000. Another loud explosion occurred in the Middle East, as Israel launched fierce bombings on Gaza and Lebanon, accused of carrying out another “massacre”. US economic data was mixed, with the S&P PMI exceeding expectations, but employment numbers in the US slightly decreased for the third consecutive month.
Israel launches fierce bombings on Gaza and Lebanon
According to Al Jazeera, Israeli tanks shelled the overwhelmed Kamel Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza and fired machine guns at the hospital, leading to the arrest of most doctors and halting life-saving surgeries. Israel attacked a shelter in the central Nusseirat refugee camp in Gaza, which was converted from a school, resulting in the death of at least 17 Palestinians, including an 11-month-old baby, and injuring 42 people.
According to AP News, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Israel has achieved its goal of “effectively dismantling” Hamas, and negotiations regarding a ceasefire and the release of dozens of Israeli hostages will resume in the “coming days”.
According to Oda Hospital, which received wounded patients, the attacks also injured 42 people in the Nusseirat refugee camp. Hospital records indicate that among the deceased, 13 were children under the age of 18 and 3 were women.
The Israeli military claimed that its targets were armed Hamas members inside the school, but provided no evidence. In recent months, Israel has targeted several shelters converted from schools, claiming that their targets were armed militants hiding among civilians. These attacks often result in the deaths of women and children.
In the past 24 hours, the Israeli army has caused at least 19 deaths in Lebanon, bringing the total death toll since the start of the war to 2,593 people. The Gaza government’s press office stated that Israel’s military attacks on Jabalia and the siege of northern Gaza have entered their 20th day, resulting in the deaths of more than 770 Palestinians and injuring 1,000 people.
Jewish Voice for Peace, based in the United States, called on the US government to impose an arms embargo on Israel and compared its war on Gaza to a “massacre”. The organization stated in a statement, “Many of us are survivors or descendants of survivors who lived or perished in Nazi death marches, and we grew up in the shadow of the Holocaust. The State of Israel is currently carrying out a massacre, deliberately carrying out large-scale massacres against the Palestinian people, using weapons provided by the United States.”
Mixed US economic data leads to profit-taking on the US dollar
The US dollar’s pullback is attributed to profit-taking after the release of mixed US economic data. Despite positive signals from the US Standard & Poor’s PMI preview data, indicating strong business activity, the US dollar still experienced a decline and is expected to consolidate in the next trading day.
The preliminary October S&P Global Composite PMI for the US was 54.3, slightly higher than expected, with the services PMI expanding to 55.3 and the manufacturing sector contracting for the third consecutive month.
Although the overall PMI has improved, employment numbers in the US slightly decreased for the third consecutive month, reflecting the uncertainty leading up to the upcoming presidential election.
The US Department of Labor stated on Thursday that initial jobless claims, after seasonal adjustments, decreased by 15,000 to 227,000 people for the week ending October 19th. The decrease in jobless claims caused by Hurricane Helen offset the surge in jobless claims caused by Hurricane Milton.
The Fed Watch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) shows a 90% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the November 7th meeting.
Meanwhile, the 10-year benchmark interest rate in the US remains below the peak near 4.20% reached on Wednesday.
US Dollar Technical Analysis
FXStreet analyst Patricio Martín stated that after the US dollar index surged above the 200-day moving average, buying momentum weakened, indicating overextension.
Based on the relative strength index (RSI), the index is preparing for sideways consolidation to alleviate overbought conditions.
Key support levels include 104.50, 104.30, and 104.00, while resistance levels are located at 104.70, 104.90, and 105.00.
Gold Technical Analysis
FXEmpire analyst Bruce Powers stated that the price of gold reached a new high of $2,758 earlier on Thursday before reversing. Sellers then took control, pushing the price below the previous day’s low of $2,719, and gold closed at that level. This is a short-term bearish price action that typically leads to a certain degree of pullback. The extent of the pullback will provide clues to the potential strength or weakness of gold. On Friday, the price of gold rebounded to $2,735.
Please note that resistance levels are near the combination of the 250% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,754 and the top ascending parallel trendline. However, considering the possibility of higher targets, it is expected that gold will continue to rise above this week’s high after a period of consolidation or pullback. On October 15th, after the last test of the 20-day moving average as a support level, gold recently broke out of a bullish flag pattern.
The measurement target of the flag pattern points to a final target of $2,815, but it is not only the flag that indicates this price area, as two additional Fibonacci measurements confirm this price area. One points to $2,797 and the other to $2,808. The aforementioned price levels collectively generate a potential target area for an upward move from $2,797 to $2,815.
An internal daily breakout, whether up or down, will indicate the next direction rather than false signals. The high or resistance level on Friday is at $2,743, and the low point is at $2,714. More importantly, the high of $2,758 and the low of $2,709 on Wednesday provide more significant price levels to gauge strength or weakness. Key support levels are the recent trend breakout area at $2,686 and the 20-day moving average at $2,670, both of which could provide strong support.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
CoinTelegraph pointed out that on October 22nd, the net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs turned negative for the first time in two weeks, with a net value of -$79.1 million, as Bitcoin prices fell by 3% the day before. Despite expectations of a cooling-off period for institutional investors, data shows that ETF inflows surged to $192.4 million on October 23rd.
Positive inflows were observed in Bitcoin’s negative daily chart, indicating that institutions remain bullish regardless of short-term declines.
Meanwhile, independent cryptocurrency analyst Moustache highlighted Bitcoin’s golden moment indicator, which has recently turned bullish.
The analyst claims that the indicator has successfully predicted the start of a bull market four times in the past four years, making it a reliable tool.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin immediately rebounded above $67,000 after presenting a V-shaped pattern from the first order block or demand zone.
For Bitcoin, the most optimistic scenario is an immediate rise above $64,500 after the cryptocurrency reflected the “fractal” pattern from July.
Currently, Bitcoin’s price movement aligns with expectations, gaining further bullish confirmation after breaking above the resistance level at $67,800 on the daily candlestick chart.
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