Bijie.com reported:
Paul Tudor Jones, founder of Tudor Investment Corporation, billionaire, and legendary investor, purchased gold and Bitcoin to hedge against inflation risks before the election.
On Tuesday, October 22nd, Jones told CNBC that regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins the presidential election, inflation in the United States will rise. Both presidential candidates are making “crazy” promises of tax cuts and increased fiscal spending, while turning a blind eye to the US deficit problem. If this problem is not resolved, the United States will need to rely on inflation to get rid of its debt.
Jones said that the US government’s debt has grown from 40% of GDP to nearly 100% within 25 years, seemingly on an unsustainable trajectory. Therefore, he is avoiding fixed income and shorting long-term US bonds.
“All roads lead to inflation. I am bullish on gold, bullish on Bitcoin, and I believe that commodities are severely undervalued, so I am also bullish on commodities. I think many young people are seeking inflation hedges through the Nasdaq, and it has performed well,” said Jones.
Jones is not the only billionaire investor who has issued fiscal warnings. Stanley Druckenmiller also stated earlier this month that he is shorting bonds. Druckenmiller said that there will soon be “fiscal recklessness” from both parties.
However, economists predict that if Trump wins the election, the inflation problem in the United States will worsen, as Trump plans to significantly increase tariffs and continue the 2017 corporate tax cuts. Jones stated that he has adjusted his investment portfolio to include more inflation trades because he believes Trump may win.
Recently, strong economic data in the United States has pushed up the risk of an economic “hard landing,” coupled with increased expectations of a Trump victory, causing US bond yields to rise rapidly.
On Monday, the yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds rose by 11 basis points, and today it rose by 2 basis points to 4.232%.
If the inflation problem is not resolved, it may trigger protests in the bond market.
Jones believes that both candidates are worrisome because they seem to not take the constantly expanding national debt seriously. Regarding the US budget, Trump and Harris are both “the least suited for this job.”
“If the next president does not adjust policies to deal with the rising debt-to-GDP ratio in the United States, the solution to this situation will be inflation,” said Jones.
Jones added that this would include raising consumption taxes and lowering interest rates as much as possible.
According to the Congressional Budget Office’s forecast, the US debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 122% by 2034. However, Jones holds a strongly pessimistic view of the US fiscal trajectory and believes that this is only a very conservative estimate.
Jones believes that the next president must address the issue of massive deficits, otherwise they will face protests in the bond market. “Bond vigilantes” have already made significant moves last year by refusing to buy US bonds, causing the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds to reach 5% in October last year.
“Under Trump’s administration, the deficit increases by $500 billion each year, and under Harris’ plan, the deficit will increase by another $600 billion each year. I feel that these are all fantasies, and the bond market will not tolerate this situation.”
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