Coinpost report:
Author: Brian McGleenon, The block; Translation: Taozhu
Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high of over $73,000 against the US dollar on the day of the US presidential election.
Kendrick’s prediction is based on Bitcoin derivatives and trading volume indicators.
Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, said that Bitcoin could reach a historical high of $73,000 on the day of the US presidential election on November 5th.
His prediction is based on the analysis of Bitcoin derivatives and trading volume indicators.
“We estimate the price trend after the election using daily Bitcoin trading volume levels. Our base case is that the price of Bitcoin on election day will be around $73,000,” Kendrick said in an email on Thursday.
He also pointed out that if Donald Trump wins the presidency, the breakeven point for options indicates that option prices may rise by about 4% once the election results are announced, and the total increase in the following days may be about 10%.
The analyst emphasized that the dynamics of the options market provide insights into the initial price trend after the election.
A large number of open BTC call options with a strike price of $80,000 are set to expire on December 27th, indicating that Bitcoin will quickly move towards this level.
“If the Republicans sweep Congress, our Bitcoin year-end target could rise to $125,000,” he said. On the contrary, Kendrick said that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, Bitcoin may initially decline, but it is expected to reach around $75,000 by the end of 2024.
Kendrick pointed out that recent trading activity is a positive indicator for the price of Bitcoin.
“In recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin has risen along with other trades popular among Trump supporters.” “According to data from RealClearPolitics, the current odds of Trump winning are 59%, while specific markets such as Polymarket indicate a 75% chance of a Republican sweep if Trump wins.”
The Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank added that the recent low point of $65,200 in Bitcoin price on Wednesday may be the last one before the US presidential election.
