CoinJi.com reported:
According to data from Polymarket, a large cryptocurrency prediction platform, the odds of former US President Donald Trump winning the November presidential election have once again risen to 64.1%, significantly surpassing Vice President Kamala Harris. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that if Trump wins, Bitcoin will surge to $125,000.
When current US President Biden announced his withdrawal from the election, Trump’s chances of winning reached 57%, but now his odds have skyrocketed again.
Polymarket data indicates that the overseas market is very optimistic about Trump winning this election. He has previously promised to establish a national Bitcoin reserve if he wins.
Geoff Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that if the Republican Party controls the US Congress after the election on November 5, the value of Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by the end of this year.
Kendrick expects Bitcoin to reach around $73,000 by Election Day, November 5. If Trump is re-elected, based on option information, Kendrick believes that Bitcoin will rise by about 4% when the results are announced and will increase by another 10% in a few days.
In a report, he wrote, “Our basic prediction is that Bitcoin will rise to around $73,000 by Election Day, catching up with Polymarket’s market probability of Trump winning, which is slightly below the historical high of $73,800 set in March.”
If Harris is elected president, Kendrick said that Bitcoin prices will decline for a period of time but will reach around $75,000 by the end of the year.
He pointed out that RealClearPolitics currently estimates the probability of Trump winning at 59%, while Polymarket believes it is nearly 75%.
CoinTelegraph emphasizes that the odds shown by Polymarket have been manipulated by an unnamed “big bettor” who recently confirmed his bet of over $20 million on Trump winning.
The cryptocurrency community believes that Trump is more friendly towards the community than Harris, except for Chris Larsen, co-founder of Ripple, who has donated $11 million to Harris’ campaign.
In fact, Kendrick is not the only commentator who is confident in Trump.
Executives from cryptocurrency asset management company Bitwise predict that if Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach $92,000.
The cryptocurrency exchange Deribit predicts that if Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach $80,000 by the end of November.
Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, and other less excited observers have stated that regardless of the election result, Bitcoin will rise.
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