Coinjie.com reports:
The probability of Trump winning the election has increased, and the cryptocurrency industry may soon receive a wave of positive news.
By Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
With the upcoming end of the US election, the future direction of the cryptocurrency market, which is greatly affected by US politics and the economy, has become a focus of close attention in the market.
Will the price of Bitcoin break through its previous high? Will the price of Ethereum continue to remain sluggish? Will the Meme Coin craze in the Solana ecosystem continue? Can altcoins gradually recover in the market? Odaily Planet Daily will analyze and summarize the current situation of the US election and the cryptocurrency market in this article for readers’ reference.
Latest opinion polls: Trump temporarily leading, Harris closely behind
Overall, the Republican presidential candidate, Trump, is currently temporarily leading in the election support rate, but the lead is small; the Democratic presidential candidate and current Vice President of the United States, Harris, has a slightly lower support rate.
Brief analysis of the US election rules: 270 electoral votes are key
According to the rules of the US election, each of the 50 states has a certain number of electoral votes, with a total of 538 nationwide. The candidate who wins 270 or more electoral votes will win the election. Except for two states (Nebraska and Maine), most states adopt the “winner-takes-all” rule, which means that once a candidate obtains the majority of votes in a state, they will receive all of that state’s electoral votes. Most states overwhelmingly support one party, so the focus of the campaign usually falls on about a dozen swing states, where the two sides are evenly matched.
Based on past US elections, the key to victory or defeat lies in seven swing states, totaling 94 electoral votes, and their results will determine the outcome of the presidential race.
Latest opinion polls: Trump has a support rate as high as 52%
The latest polls show that Trump is leading Harris, with 52% of voters supporting Trump as the next President of the United States.
Previous news indicated that Trump was leading Harris with a 47% approval rating compared to Harris’ 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll.
In the latest poll conducted by the Financial Times, Trump is leading Harris in terms of the US economy.
The latest betting information from the cryptocurrency prediction market, Polymarket, shows that Trump has a 60.7% chance of winning, while Harris has a 39.4% chance.
According to the information from the official website of RCP, a well-known US political election website, the Trump/Pence ticket is expected to win more key swing state electoral votes, ultimately reaching 312 electoral votes and winning the election.
US election ballot warehouse prediction results
Market perspective: Trump’s chances of winning the election are highly correlated with the trend of cryptocurrency asset prices
Previously, Intern, the head of growth at Monad, wrote that the Trump winning curve on Polymarket is highly positively correlated with the trend of Bitcoin prices.
The trend of the image selected data from March to October this year
QCP Capital previously stated in a report that as the probability of Trump winning the election increases, the market expects his cryptocurrency policies to be more friendly than Harris’, further strengthening the positive correlation between cryptocurrency assets and Trump’s victory.
As Galaxy Research previously analyzed, although Harris is more friendly towards cryptocurrency policies than the current President, Biden, her stance is far less favorable in the market’s view compared to Trump. After all, Harris has promised to improve the regulatory environment for the US cryptocurrency industry but has taken a more cautious stance on issues such as taxation, Bitcoin mining, and self-custody. On the other hand, Trump supports Bitcoin mining and has promised to protect the right to self-custody.
The Bitfinex Alpha research report also pointed out that there is an enhanced correlation between the price trendThe potential price increase of Bitcoin is driven by various factors, including the steepening of the US Treasury yield curve, inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and an increase in the probability of Trump winning the election. Currently, data shows that Trump’s probability of winning the election is 56.3%, and the probability of a Republican overall victory is 39%, which could create favorable conditions for risk assets including Bitcoin. In addition, the open interest contracts of call options at $80,000 on the Bitcoin options market have recently increased, indicating institutional investors’ optimism about the medium-term upward potential of Bitcoin.
In a report, BNP Paribas stated that the outcome of the US election early next month will determine the near-term outlook for the US dollar. If Republican candidate Trump becomes president and the Republicans control Congress, it will be the most positive outcome for the US dollar.
Crypto expert: Trump will push Bitcoin price to $100,000
Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies at crypto asset management company Bitwise, predicts that if Trump wins the US presidential election in November, the price of Bitcoin could rise to $92,000. Based on a chart plotting Bitcoin price against Trump’s winning odds on Polymarket and applying some “merged arbitrage probability mathematics,” the results show that Bitcoin price is likely to soar after Trump wins the election. In addition, early Bitcoin investor Erik Finman believes that Trump’s victory could push the price of Bitcoin to $100,000, and “his policies will ignite the crypto market, driving significant growth in the entire sector.”
Augustine Fan, director of SOFA.org, said, “With the focus on the US election results, the most positive outcome for cryptocurrencies would be Trump’s victory, along with the Republicans sweeping the House and Senate, which would make it possible for Trump-Wants-supported digital asset reform plans to be passed in Congress.” Fan added, “If Trump’s dominance continues, the Fed may send out more moderate signals, and we may see a new momentum for Bitcoin in the weeks following these events.”
Alex Svanevik, CEO of blockchain analytics company Nansen, argues that a key condition for the biggest bull market in history in 2025 is Trump winning the presidential election.
Neutral viewpoint: Both candidates will lead to economic risks and market declines
Mike Wilson, chief US stock strategist at Morgan Stanley, said that while some people believe that a Trump victory would be detrimental to economic growth and the stock market, a Harris victory could disappoint Wall Street. Polls show a 50% chance of this happening. However, Wilson pointed out the risks of a market decline that could come with a Trump victory.
Analysts at trading and financial services firm Presto said that the US election could trigger a bond market collapse, which would also have an impact on other assets such as Bitcoin. Jones said that in the current risk environment, he is bullish on Bitcoin, gold, commodities, and Nasdaq stocks. Analysts believe that both Republican candidate Trump and Democratic candidate Harris have promised “fiscal profligacy,” leading to a continuous increase in government debt levels, which exacerbates the risk of a bond market collapse. In addition, the “2024 Bitcoin Act,” which is currently awaiting congressional approval, could help stabilize US debt and even the global financial system.
Neutral viewpoint: Either candidate will benefit the crypto industry
Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at crypto venture capital fund Dragonfly Capital, said, “Regardless of who wins, the post-election environment should be favorable for potential crypto IPOs.” He said that while Trump may push the SEC to adopt a more supportive stance on cryptocurrencies, Harris may “replace Gensler with her own pick, which should lead to a more lenient cryptocurrency regulation in the US.”
David Lawant, research director at crypto market maker FalconX, said, “I believe the market consensus is that Bitcoin could perform well regardless of the election result, and our analysis shows a clear bullish bias in options activity surrounding the upcoming election.” Republican candidate and former President Trump openly supports cryptocurrencies, to the point
