The past week has felt like a bear market to me, and I believe many of you feel the same way. Yes, cryptocurrency prices have dropped, but more importantly, the market atmosphere is currently very dull.
However, with the change of seasons and the Gann time factor we are dealing with, I believe that everything will change soon. If you haven’t watched our Wednesday update, I suggest you do so here.
Otherwise, let’s get straight to the point, because my feelings haven’t changed.
First, let’s take a look at the stock market.
Be prepared for a pullback to buy. As you can see, we have two symmetrical upward trends. Each trend is 20 calendar days (not trading days), equating to 310 points. Therefore, both symmetrical trends in time and price coincide with the red line marking the SPY IPO 150-degree date. There are arrows on the red line indicating the date calculated by degrees last time, and you can also see it was a short-term high point.
We also note that many people point out that the RSI of QQQ is at historically high levels.
All of this coincides with the natural date of the summer solstice.
This tells us to be prepared for a trend change. The good news is that our election cycle seasonality still tells us there is room for upward movement in the market, as shown in the graph above. We also have the next natural date on July 7th, which is a Sunday, but it would perfectly coincide with a 10-day adjustment period if we adjust here, possibly reaching a low point near the next natural date.
As for cryptocurrency, the setup is almost identical, but in the opposite direction.
Similarly, our natural date is approaching, coinciding with the price. Pay attention to the daily RSI in the orange circle, marking the low points. We also have a bullish reversal setup, as indicated by the blue arrows, where the price is at a higher low and the RSI is at a lower low. This tells us that BTC is oversold in the short term. Coupled with the price being at the intersection of the green 1/1 incline line and the black 1/1 decline line, and close to our date, I believe this is at least a significant low point in the short term.
On the other hand, ETH is performing stronger than BTC.
I encourage you to watch the video from Wednesday, where I talked about signals and time. As you can see, we are performing better than BTC and still maintaining a three-day time reversal. Therefore, if this market takes off, ETH is expected to perform well.
Finally, let’s review the teaching points from last week.
Last week, I demonstrated on several meme charts how to find the bottom.
Here are last week’s TRUMP charts with the actual results.
As you can see, many meme charts look like this. The key is that there will be panic when the chart forms a lower high followed by a lower low. So don’t buy on the second rebound, sell if it breaks the low point of the first adjustment. Another key point is to wait for three downward moves to complete before buying. Then look for a signal candle.
Here’s another great example. The current leading meme BASE’s CHOMP.
I can almost guarantee it will retest the $0.25 level. It breaks, forms a lower high, followed by a lower low. There will be panic. Buy at this point.
This is important because many charts look like this, and many people keep trying to guess and buy the bottom. Forget it. In fact, if you know these things, the bottom is easier to find. Wait for three downward moves, then wait for a signal candle. This way, you now have a safer way to buy the bottom. Stop guessing.
So, while I am optimistic about the rebound in the coming days/weeks, be cautious about buying such charts. TRUMP will be a good subject of study with the upcoming debates. For me, it looks like it still needs one final downward move, so the key is to see if it forms a higher high during the debate week, and if not, there will be panic buying.
It’s that simple. For those altcoins that have been falling for weeks, zoom in to the weekly chart, look for the three downward moves structure, and then wait for a signal candle on the weekly chart. This will be safer than trying to buy the bottom.
Overall, I believe we are at a turning point. Get ready for the rebound, but don’t bet all your assets. We are still in a very difficult and volatile market, which may continue until August.
