As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, activities on the prediction market PolyMarket based on cryptocurrencies have surged. Decentralized exchange PancakeSwap announced on Wednesday that it will launch a prediction market focusing on one question: whether the price of Ethereum will rise or fall?
They will be betting on artificial intelligence predictions.
Chef Gyoza, the pseudonymous product manager of PancakeSwap, told Decrypt: “We have been exploring ways to create unique experiences for users. Incorporating artificial intelligence into the prediction market is the logical next step.”
According to the announcement, the PancakeSwap prediction market will be based on Arbitrum and will invite users to predict the price trends of ETH every 10 minutes. Over the next nine weeks, rewards for correct predictions will be distributed from a 60,000 ARB bonus pool (approximately $49,600 at the time of writing).
PancakeSwap has hired decentralized artificial intelligence network provider Allora to provide AI predictions, and the exchange stated that the predictions showed 65% accuracy during testing.
As PancakeSwap’s AI prediction market makes its debut, the cryptocurrency market is awaiting the launch of an Ethereum spot ETF in the United States. At the same time, PolyMarket’s activities have also reached a record high, claiming to be the world’s largest prediction market.
While PancakeSwap’s platform focuses on one issue, PolyMarket supports countless bets on numerous topics.
As of June 27, Polymarket’s monthly trading volume reached $93.55 million, with a monthly active user base of 26,560, reaching a historical high. The platform’s highest predictions are centered on the winner of the 2024 US presidential election, with bets exceeding $185 million to date. Currently, the odds of Donald Trump winning are 60%, while the odds of Joe Biden winning are 34%.
Nick Emmons, co-founder of Allora, told Decrypt: “Prediction markets have gained significant attention around the US presidential election because they are able to focus market mechanisms on specific events.” They are powerful tools for aggregating collective knowledge, especially when elections garner widespread attention.”
He said that artificial intelligence brings an important new dimension to the space.
Emmons stated: “The ability of artificial intelligence to efficiently process large datasets introduces a new type of trader to interact with these markets.” With tonight’s presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the cryptocurrency community will be watching with great interest. Grassroots advocacy organization Stand with Crypto, which supports cryptocurrency users, has collected signatures urging CNN to ask the candidates about cryptocurrencies during the debate.
While public opinion polls remain the primary gauge of public sentiment, Emmons said this situation could change.
“In the next six months, as election-related events unfold, activity on prediction markets may increase. This heightened interest will make a broader audience familiar with prediction markets,” he said. “As a result, people will increasingly view these markets as a more definitive source of collective knowledge in more and more areas.”
Edited by Ryan Ozawa.
