Narrative Before the US Election Cryptocurrencies Treading on the Dollar

Source: Coin World
Author: Cybermelon Farmer
Introduction: The U.S. Federal Reserve: “Watch my moves.”
The Cybermelon Farmer speaks informally and freely, showing off his intellect.
In recent times, the BTC market has seen continuous selling pressure, with Mt.Gox repaying debts with BTC and the German government selling BTC. Today, the U.S. jumps out and says, “I’m dumping 4,000 BTC, it won’t affect the market.”
Really won’t affect it?
A series of coincidences at specific time points
German narrative 1:
Since the Russia-Ukraine war, the EU has been pulled into the Ukraine ship by the U.S. due to military pressure from Russia. In response, Germany plans to reinstate conscription on May 13th and increase military spending to 3% of the national GDP. From a financial perspective, it’s not easy for Germany, which experienced war reparations after World War II, to achieve this 3% goal. So, Germany needs money.
Coincidentally, the plan made in May, which could have been implemented sooner or later, just happened to be implemented at this time. If it was just Germany, it could be called a coincidence, but what about Mt.Gox?
Mt.Gox
Narrative 2:
In a series of recent news about BTC sales, many people have learned about Mt.Gox. Here, we introduce the mysterious Mt.Gox, which holds a large amount of BTC.
Mt.Gox, a BTC exchange based in Tokyo, Japan, was established in July 2010;
In 2011, Mt.Gox was fully acquired by Tibanne Co.;
In the same year, in June, Mt.Gox was hacked and 2000 BTC were stolen;
In 2012, after the hacking bankruptcy, Mark Karpelès, founder of Tibanne Co., wanted to use BTC as electronic cash in Japan;
Interestingly, a BTC exchange from Japan needing to use BTC as a financial payment method faced a crackdown by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. In June 2013, the U.S. DHS seized Mt.Gox’s Dwolla account, stating that Karpeles had not registered correctly.
After reading this, do you feel brainwashed by public opinion?
The Cybermelon Farmer has raised three questions:
1. BTC was created in the genesis block in 2009, and Japan had a BTC exchange in 2010. As the same year as the BTC pizza day, when 10,000 BTC were exchanged for a pizza, the Cybermelon Farmer cannot understand how the BTC exchange operated in 2010.
2. Even Ethereum was officially launched in 2015. As a company that controlled the world’s largest BTC exchange as early as 2014, how is it that the founder Mark Karpelès and Tibanne Co are unknown today?
3. Stolen 2000 BTC years ago, planning to repay 200,000 BTC today? What’s going on here?
About Mt.Gox, the Cybermelon Farmer wants to add one more thing: the United States? U.S. Department of Homeland Security? It’s hard not to think about the delicate relationship between Japan and the U.S.
Cryptocurrency ETF narrative 3:
Do you feel that this year’s cryptocurrency bull market has turned bearish?
Take Ethereum, for example. The approval of an Ethereum spot ETF should have been a cause for celebration, with related cryptocurrency regulatory laws being enacted and the international mainstream financial market embracing the cryptocurrency market. Logically, the Ethereum L2 ecosystem should be more radiant, or perform better, in order to reflect the comprehensive value of the Ethereum ETF.
According to the logic of ETF funds, the performance of various sectors of Ethereum reflects the value of the ETF.
Listing the Ethereum positives in 2024:
Ethereum technical upgrades, especially the implementation of EIP-4844, will improve network efficiency and scalability.
The approval of an Ethereum spot ETF has also led traditional financial market investors to show interest in Ethereum, and the inflow of funds should strengthen the Ethereum ecosystem and value growth.
The introduction of Layer2 solutions has brought more possibilities for the active Ethereum ecosystem.
The growth of Ethereum staking reduces the circulation of Ethereum in the market, naturally leading to an increase in Ethereum’s value.
But looking at Ethereum’s value performance:
Has Ethereum violated the laws of nature?
Interest rate reduction and selling pressure narrative 4:
Here, to pave the way for the next section, let’s not go into too much detail. Just take a look at this picture and understand it for yourself.
In just 2 months, various reasons have led to the release of $13.1 billion. Whales are selling, and who among the retail investors can absorb $13.1 billion? In response, the U.S. government says, “I’ll dump 4,000 BTC, it won’t affect the market.”
But behind a series of events, the Cybermelon Farmer absolutely doesn’t believe that there was no push from the U.S.
U.S. election and interest rate reduction plan
My graphs are so beautiful, you should take a good look, I suggest you look at them repeatedly.
The U.S. presidential election in November this year is an international hot topic, with two elderly men (Biden 82, Trump 76) competing for the presidency. Apart from exposing each other’s dark history to the public, the cryptocurrency market has become a hot topic in the current U.S. presidential election.
The power of cryptocurrency in the U.S. election
It is estimated that as of 2024, there are 20 million people in the U.S. using cryptocurrencies, accounting for roughly 14% of the population. In this context, the protection of residents’ cryptocurrency assets has naturally become a hot topic on this land, which is centered on human rights. From Trump, we can easily see the growing influence of the cryptocurrency market in recent years.
Before 2021, during Trump’s presidency, he was once opposed to cryptocurrency assets, but now, in this U.S. presidential election, Trump has shown clear support for cryptocurrency assets. He has made statements in public expressing his fondness for what BTC mining enterprises are building, and so on.
With Trump’s support, the MEME coin, which has only just appeared this year, has also performed well with support from the U.S. political background.
As for Biden, regardless of the right or wrong of his governing policies and style, under Trump’s advantage in seeking the support of the cryptocurrency market, the Biden administration, which initially maintained a calm attitude toward the cryptocurrency market, has also had to show a friendly attitude toward the cryptocurrency market and MEME, which is a topic in the cryptocurrency sector.
Through the assistance of these two elderly men, the cryptocurrency market, including NFTs, MEME, BTC, and related mining enterprises, has become more active compared to before.
Of course, the U.S. election has become a cliché in the cryptocurrency community, and it is being overused.
But one thing I have to mention is that based on the consistent style of the U.S. election, whoever wins in the end will have to fulfill the promises made to the voters when running for president. This has also laid the groundwork for the development of the cryptocurrency market over the next four years.
Interpretation of the U.S. interest rate reduction plan
According to the market’s reaction, the U.S. Federal Reserve plans to usher in an interest rate reduction in the second half of this year.
A simple interpretation of what an interest rate reduction means is that the value of the U.S. dollar decreases, so a product that was originally worth $10,000 may now require $11,000 or $12,000 to purchase. This also means that more U.S. dollars will be in circulation in the market. For ordinary folks, this means the depreciation of money and an increase in prices. However, for the U.S. market, a large outflow of U.S. dollars can also stimulate the development of the market economy.
So where does the money from interest rate cuts go?
Of course, to the oligarchs and whales! Otherwise, who else?
This will also be reflected in the cryptocurrency market. Combined with the previous section, the $13.1 billion sell-off and whales selling? Who will take over for the retail investors? If nobody takes over, the market will naturally decline.
Since March 14th, BTC has been oscillating between $70,000 and $60,000 several times, with each oscillation cycle getting longer and longer, and the upward cycles seem to last only two or three days.
On the timeline, you can check the timeline given by the Cybermelon Farmer against BTC’s candlestick chart. Most of the time, you can see the shadow of the whales selling. So, the question is, why is the overall market performance so fragmented in the bull market of 2024, amidst many positive factors?
How to repay the power of cryptocurrency?
As mentioned earlier, regardless of who is elected, they will have to fulfill the promises made to the voters when running for president.
Here, let’s take another look at this picture.
If the chat record in the picture comes true, the interest rate reduction will be between September and November. Corresponding to the timeline, the end of the interest rate reduction just happens before the U.S. presidential election. So, let’s make a bold guess: what happens after the election?
In this U.S. presidential election, no matter which side you look at, the cryptocurrency market has contributed a lot. Taking the start of the cryptocurrency market frenzy in November as a reference point, the president is bound to repay the cryptocurrency market. So, how can they leverage this well-known fact to gain even greater benefits?
From a capital perspective, buying low and selling high is very reasonable.
If the U.S. Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates after the U.S. presidential election?
Currently, with the U.S. leading the way in selling pressure and flooding the market, the cryptocurrency market has been crushed to zero in the lead-up to the election.
After the U.S. election, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, tightening monetary policy, and the U.S. dollar flows back to the government. At this point, who in the market still has money to invest in the cryptocurrency market? The oligarchs enter at zero prices, and the president fulfills the promises made during the election campaign. It seems to be a win-win situation for the oligarchs and the president.
What? You ask who loses in the middle of all this?
Just look at the liquidation data.