Cryptocurrency market maker GSR Markets predicts that if the US spot Solana ETF is approved, the price of Solana (SOL) will see a significant increase. In a “blue sky” scenario, the SOL price could rise nine-fold, and even in a “bear market” scenario, it is expected to have a 1.4-fold increase. VanEck’s application for a spot Solana ETF makes this prediction even more noteworthy.
GSR Markets referred to Solana as one of the “three giants” in the cryptocurrency field in a report released on June 27th, along with Bitcoin and Ethereum, and explored the possibility of Solana becoming the next spot cryptocurrency ETF to be approved in the US. This analysis caused a sensation in the industry, and VanEck applied for a spot Solana ETF on the same day. GSR predicts that the spot Solana ETF may account for 14% of market flow since the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF in January.
According to GSR’s optimistic scenario, Solana’s price could rise from the current $149 to over $1,320, and its market value would reach $614 billion. Even in a more conservative scenario, the price is expected to rise 1.4 to 3.4 times. These predictions may be even higher if staking rewards are included. However, this may limit potential growth as staking is not allowed in approved spot Ethereum ETFs.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and other analysts are skeptical of GSR’s optimistic predictions. They believe that significant regulatory changes are needed for the spot Solana ETF to be approved, such as a new US president and a different SEC chairman. Current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler considers the SOL token a security and has complicated the approval process with lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase.
VanEck’s application for a spot Solana ETF came a week after Canadian cryptocurrency asset management company 3iQ applied for a similar ETF. It is currently uncertain whether large companies like Franklin Templeton will apply for a spot Solana ETF in the future.
The value of global Solana-based exchange-traded products has exceeded $1 billion, demonstrating Solana’s growing recognition and potential in the cryptocurrency market. However, the road to regulatory approval is challenging, making the future of the US spot Solana ETF uncertain. Nevertheless, given the current discussions, it may eventually be approved.
