As Solana consolidates its position as one of the top cryptocurrencies alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum, and with Bitcoin and ETH already having or nearing approval for US spot ETFs, the potential for the next Solana spot ETF naturally becomes the focus. Recent analysis by GSR Markets suggests that such ETFs could catalyze a price increase for SOL, potentially reaching up to nine times its current value.
To measure the potential impact on SOL’s price, GSR Markets compared it to BTC’s experience after approving its own ETF. Historically, Bitcoin’s price surged from $27,000 to around $63,000, mainly driven by ETF-related fund inflows, resulting in a price increase of 2.3 times. GSR Markets applied a similar scenario to Solana and predicted potential price increases ranging from 1.4 to 8.9 times based on the relative size of ETF inflows compared to Bitcoin.
Market dynamics further increase the potential upward space for SOL. Unlike BTC, Solana’s active use in staking and decentralized applications suggests that ETF-related fund inflows could have a greater impact. This could create “free choice” for investors, reflecting the huge upward potential relative to the current market conditions.
Although challenges still exist, such as the relative market size and regulatory uncertainty compared to Bitcoin, GSR Markets remains optimistic about Solana’s prospects. If US regulations develop to accommodate more spot digital asset ETFs, SOL could see one of the largest price increases in recent cryptocurrency history.
The path to Solana spot ETF
According to GSR Markets’ research, the path to establishing a spot crypto ETF in the US depends on several regulatory and market conditions. Unlike futures-based ETFs that currently dominate the market alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana’s spot ETF requires federal regulatory futures markets and proof of market correlation within a few years.
However, recent political shifts suggest potential changes in the regulatory landscape. Support from figures such as former President Donald Trump for the cryptocurrency industry has softened Democratic opposition, leading to bipartisan support for regulatory frameworks that could bring new cryptocurrency opportunities and lay the groundwork for future ETF approvals.
Key decision factors for approving a spot Solana ETF include measures of power decentralization, equity requirements, and governance ratings. Market indicators that measure potential investor interest and market survival, existing asset management scale, and community activity are also factors.
GSR Markets’ analysis combines these factors into an ETF probability score, putting Solana on par with Ethereum in the competition for the next spot digital asset ETF. Ethereum’s recent submission of ETF filings and expected launch puts it in the lead, with Solana following closely behind due to its high scores in decentralization and demand indicators.
