Interest Rate Cut is a Done Deal ShortTerm Market Fluctuations Wont Affect the Trend

Today is June 29, 2024, Saturday. The price of Bitcoin fell to around $60,000 yesterday, causing anxiety for some. Seeing a rebound a few days ago, many couldn’t resist jumping in, only to miss out on the profits when the rebound happened. Instead, they ended up facing losses during the subsequent correction. In this market, making big money relies not on frequent trading, but on identifying trends and patiently waiting for opportunities. To do so, we need to block out all market noise and focus on the big picture to understand the major trends.
As mentioned in previous articles, the majority of the market’s time is spent in a state of fluctuation. After the fluctuations, whether the market rises or falls, the movements are fast and short-lived, followed by further fluctuation to disrupt retail investors. Coupled with the impact of news, the market fluctuates back and forth to influence retail investors’ decisions. For example, yesterday, the US released PCE data that met expectations. Many believed this data would slow down the Fed’s interest rate cut, and as a result, the market followed suit and experienced a pullback. Retail investors are always concerned about the impact of news on the market, and after a pullback, many will view it as bearish. However, in my opinion, regardless of whether the news is positive or negative, it only affects short-term market movements and cannot disrupt the overall trend.
Interest rates follow a pattern, and the Fed began raising rates in 2022, continuing for over a year until rates peaked near 5.5. After maintaining high interest rates for over a year, the Fed has not raised rates again, indicating a low probability of further rate hikes. With no more rate hikes in sight, it implies that a rate cut is imminent. Given that interest rates have not increased for over a year, we can expect a rate cut to be increasingly closer. Therefore, whether the current news is positive or negative, it will not impact the ultimate outcome, which is a rate cut.
Rate cuts and hikes are a financial market pattern, and we need to understand the essence. Monthly data changes can be likened to the market’s bullish or bearish trends, but the monthly data changes only affect short-term fluctuations and do not impact the overall trend. Knowing that high interest rate fluctuations are coming to an end, and a rate cut is imminent, is a major positive for the entire financial market. Once we understand the overall trend, it’s difficult to incur losses in the spot market. When the market reaches a turning point, the movement will be rapid, and it’s important not to set the bar too high. At present, we need to take it step by step, carefully observing at each level of stability. As long as we enter the market after each stabilization, there should be no problem. If there’s no stabilization, exit the market immediately. There will definitely be short-term pullbacks to eliminate some indecisive market participants, but ultimately, the market will continue to rise, even if there is a short-term decline now. With favorable market conditions, the market will rebound. The short-term decline is just a way to shake out contracts and some unstable chips in the market, so don’t be frightened!
Furthermore, the weekly chart is about to close, and Ethereum appears to be declining, but in reality, the strength of the bears is weak. With a strong bullish candlestick and five consecutive weeks without completion of the decline, along with reduced volume near the second long-term upward trend line, it indicates strong bullish sentiment. The quarterly delivery market has also ended, and an Ethereum ETF is about to be released. Looking at the market, the trend is strong, and I believe it’s time for Ethereum to shine in the upcoming period!