CoinDesk Report:
Author: Blockworks Research; Translation: Felix, PANews
Recently, there has been significant buzz surrounding TON and Telegram, with many believing TON could be the next SOL or ETH. Blockworks Research has provided insights, suggesting TON’s growth prospects may be dwindling, possibly disappointing expectations.
Telegram
Low User Stickiness
Telegram boasts global influence, with a substantial number of daily active users (DAU) that could potentially flow into TON. By this measure, Telegram stands as one of the most widely used applications globally.
According to data from Telegram, it ranks among the most popular global applications with a total user base of 900 million, placing it 8th among global applications.
However, its user stickiness, measured by DAU, appears overestimated. The DAU/MAU ratio across various social apps (depicted below) shows Telegram’s DAU, despite high MAU (monthly active users), is relatively low (between 55 million to 200 million), significantly lower compared to competing apps, with a DAU/MAU ratio of only 15%.
In contrast, Facebook’s ratio is 69%, WeChat about 67%, Instagram 60%, TikTok (U.S. only) 49%, and Twitter (X) 45%. This indicates Telegram’s market penetration is lower than expected, with a user base capable of monetization below market expectations.
PANews
Note:
DAU/MAU
ratio measures user stickiness for networks or applications
Incompatibility
with EVM and Limited Programming Language Use
The TON ecosystem faces challenges due to lack of compatibility with EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine) and FunC (native blockchain programming language).
TON Virtual Machine (TVM) is incompatible with Ethereum’s EVM due to fundamentally different architectures (TON being asynchronous and Ethereum synchronous). Consequently, the TON ecosystem does not support development in Ethereum’s Solidity programming language.
According to a 2023 developer survey (with over 90,000 participants), Rust emerged as the most favored language, with over 80% of developers expressing intent to use it again next year. 46.4% of developers expect to use Solidity.
Currently, TON supports three programming languages: Fift, FunC, and Tact. Among these, FunC is the most widely used. Despite resembling C language, FunC is generally less recognized or advocated.
Limited Market Coverage
Much of TON’s narrative growth revolves around Telegram potentially becoming the next WeChat. However, WeChat operates exclusively in China, outside the U.S. market.
In stark contrast, today’s app markets are dominated by tech giants with robust financial resources and established network effects. Telegram’s largest market distribution lies in dispersed markets across the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China and Eastern Europe), complicating distribution for startups leveraging Telegram.
Below are Telegram’s 2022 annual download distributions:
India: 104 million downloads.
Russia: 34 million downloads.
Indonesia: 27 million downloads.
USA: 26 million downloads.
Brazil: 21.94 million downloads.
Egypt: 14.85 million downloads.
Vietnam: 11.84 million downloads.
Mexico: 11.61 million downloads.
Ukraine: 10.76 million downloads.
Turkey: 9.79 million downloads.
FDV
Overvalued Valuation
Despite these realities, TON still holds substantial growth potential, with new investors having little safety margin.
The following chart illustrates that among all public chains, TON’s FDV is 8.6 times its network’s annualized DEX trading volume, ranking it first at the highest level.
Furthermore, FDV is 927 times its network’s annualized fees, placing it prominently among all public chains.
