Republican candidate Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election have sharply increased on Polymarket. The growing market sentiment suggests that President Biden either will not become the Democratic candidate or will withdraw from the race. Blockchain investors are skeptical of President Biden’s performance in the first debate of the 2024 election cycle, which has boosted former President Trump’s chances of winning the November election to 67%.
A contract requiring bettors to predict the outcome of the 2024 election has currently seen bets totaling nearly $188 million, with around $23 million bet on Trump and $21 million bet on Biden. The bets on Polymarket are placed in smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain and settled in the USDC stablecoin.
Polymarket reported that the website experienced a short period of downtime due to high traffic at the start of the debate. From the market sentiment perspective, doubts about Biden’s ability to hold out until Election Day are increasing. According to Polymarket, the likelihood of Biden becoming the Democratic candidate is less than 70%, with California Governor Gavin Newsom’s chances reaching 17% and Michelle Obama’s chances reaching 7%.
Meanwhile, PoliFi token traders have pushed the two main tokens representing Trump and Biden into a loss-making state. According to CoinGecko data, the MAGA token with the code TRUMP has fallen by 12.5%, while the BODEN token has fallen by 34%. TREMP has also fallen by 10%. The DJT token, which recently made headlines due to its apparent connection to Barron Trump, has fallen by 5%.
Although cryptocurrency has become a Republican campaign issue, it was not mentioned in the debate. Polymarket contract inquired whether Trump would mention cryptocurrency or Bitcoin, and the result showed it was unlikely, with the highest percentage being 6%.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was not invited to participate in the debate, but he answered questions raised during the Trump-Biden debate in a special live stream on X Channel, which has been viewed over 5.6 million times on the social media platform.
