CoinDesk reports:
Without a futures market, analysts have differing opinions on the feasibility of a spot SOL ETF. The lack of regulatory clarity for SOL could be a challenge, but some analysts are confident in approval in the event of a Trump victory.
Following recent filings by digital asset management firms VanEck and 21Shares, there appears to be a divide in the market on whether a U.S. spot Solana (SOL) ETF will become a reality.
However, most agree that the U.S. presidential election may determine the fate of the SOL ETF. Nonetheless, there is still disagreement about how the absence of futures trading could hinder approval.
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, VanEck’s Director of Digital Assets Research, Mathew Sigel, insisted that the requirement of futures exchange-traded funds is a “psyops” by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. He added, “Many ETFs trade without any connection to futures market prices, such as uranium ETFs, power ETFs… With a slight change in the Washington regulatory environment, we believe we will see approval for this (SOL ETF).”
Galaxy Digital disagrees with SOL ETF
However, Bloomberg’s Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas sees VanEck’s SOL ETF application as a “call option” on the U.S. election. This means a new government may give it the green light, especially if Donald Trump returns to the highest office.
Sigel also expressed a similar view. He insisted that even if Biden wins the election, as long as the current chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is replaced or SOL is reclassified as a commodity, the SOL ETF could still be approved.
However, Galaxy Digital’s Global Head of Asset Management, Steve Kurz, disagrees with Sigel’s stance. Kurz emphasized that based on legislation and previous court proceedings, “You need a futures market for Solana to become an ETF. You have a futures market for ETH, but not for Solana.”
Overall, market expectations for a green light for the SOL ETF remain low, with Polymarket indicating a 13% chance of approval by 2024.
Most market observers believe that Donald Trump supports cryptocurrencies, so his victory may increase the chances of approval for the SOL ETF.
On the price chart, SOL is trading at $146, with a slight 1% decrease in the past 24 hours, but a 7% increase after the optimistic SOL ETF application adjustment every week.
However, as of the time of writing, the price technical indicators show as neutral, indicating that SOL’s price could go either way.
