Investors are eagerly awaiting the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF this month. However, reports of a possible delay seem to have unsettled investors.
But according to a recent report released by the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, once the spot Ethereum ETF is launched, these new products are expected to attract net inflows of $30-50 billion within the first six months of trading.
Massive Inflows for Ethereum ETF
Gemini’s analysis suggests that the introduction of a spot Ethereum ETF in the United States could significantly increase the total assets under management (AUM). When the projected new inflows are combined with the existing assets of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), the total AUM of the US spot Ethereum ETF could reach $13-15 billion in the first half of trading.
The report also points out that Ethereum’s market value is currently close to its lowest levels in recent years compared to Bitcoin. However, the expected capital inflows into these new instruments may improve its market position relative to Bitcoin. If the ETH/BTC ratio returns to the three-year median of 0.067, it would represent an increase of nearly 20%. In a more optimistic scenario, reaching the maximum ratio of 0.087 during this period would translate to a 55% rebound.
Gemini stated that, given that the spot Bitcoin ETF attracted $15 billion in a similar timeframe, inflows of less than $3 billion in the first six months would be “disappointing.” Meanwhile, inflows of over $5 billion, equivalent to one-third of the Bitcoin ETF inflows, would be considered a strong performance. Reaching nearly 50% of the Bitcoin ETF inflows, or approximately $7.5 billion, would be a “significant upside surprise.”
Delay in Launch of Spot Ethereum ETF
Currently, eight fund issuers have received 19b-4 approval for the Ethereum spot ETF and are awaiting final S-1 authorization to list and launch the product for trading. Previous market forecasts indicated a 73% likelihood of these ETFs being launched before July 4. However, recent developments have significantly reduced this possibility.
It has been reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has requested additional amendments to the applications, leading to a delay. Despite this setback, the final approval of the spot Ethereum ETF is still expected. The deadline has been extended, with fund issuers required to submit the latest applications by July 8.
