CoinDesk Report:
Cryptocurrency markets have recently shown a general downturn in prices, prompting investors and market analysts alike to seek the next major event that could shift market sentiment. The approval of an Ethereum ETF is seen as a potential game changer, with Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart revealing on Twitter that Bitwise Invest has resubmitted a revised Ethereum ETF S-1 form.
Analyst: Speculating a listing by the week of July 15!
Of note to investors, Seyffart speculates that more issuers may submit similar applications this week, with an Ethereum spot ETF potentially hitting the market later next week or by the week of July 15.
According to reports, Bitwise’s latest submission updates include a waiver of up to $500 million in management fees over six months. While the document does not specify the exact launch date for trading on the New York Stock Exchange, Bitwise intends to “move quickly upon effectiveness of registration,” contingent on SEC approval. Despite potential delays due to summer holidays affecting SEC processing times, Bitwise remains prepared to act promptly upon approval.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas questions the SEC’s approval timeline, noting uncertainty over why the process is taking so long. He anticipates that trading for the Ethereum spot ETF could launch soon but acknowledges potential slowdowns possibly due to staffing issues during the summer break.
Will ETH Attract Significant Inflows?
Eric Balchunas previously estimated Ethereum’s market flow at only 10% of Bitcoin’s. This suggests a projected net buying flow of $500 million and a net flow of $1.5 billion over six months for Ethereum.
Regarding the potential influx of funds into Ethereum, Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, adopts a more conservative view. He forecasts Ethereum ETF market flow to represent about 15% of Bitcoin’s, equating to a projected $840 million in net buying flow and $2.52 billion in net flow.
Under optimistic scenarios, net buying for the Ethereum ETF could reach $1.5 billion, with a reported net flow of $4.5 billion, equivalent to 30% of Bitcoin’s market flow. Regardless, actual net buying remains significantly lower than derivatives flows before the ETF launch, which had already reached $2.4 billion, reflecting market expectations and reactions in advance.
Ahead of the ETF launch, Andrew Kang estimates ETH trading prices between $3,000 and $3,800. Post-launch, he predicts prices to range from $2,400 to $3,000. Notably, Kang emphasizes that outcomes hinge on Bitcoin’s performance; a surge to $100,000 by late 2024 or early 2025 could propel ETH to historic highs.
