CoinDesk Report:
BTC
BTC experienced a slight pullback early yesterday morning, finding brief support around the key level of 62,019 and providing multiple small rebound opportunities, before breaking below the retracement trend line at 9:00 AM.
Its current position falls within the previous consolidation range, typically providing support around the upper band during initial retracements. This area can be considered a short-term support zone, with levels referenced at 60,880 to 60,152 (focus on quick entries and exits).
From a medium to long-term perspective, July is historically an upward month, though retracements in the first week are normal. Given insufficient retracement on the weekly charts previously, there remains some downward pressure. Further retracement towards the 58,360 to 57,110 range could be seen as a mid-term opportunity.
ETH
ETH continues to fluctuate around the main support level of 3,358. While there is support here, the potential for rebounds is uncertain. Personally, I refrain from recommending heavy short-term involvement at this juncture.
Two optimal scenarios include: waiting for a price rebound followed by a secondary retracement to 3,358, aligned with broader market conditions; or seizing opportunities near the 3,325 to 3,360 range during sharp declines.
Altcoins
There is currently no significant influx of hot money. After a rapid rise earlier this year, the crypto market has been in a three-month consolidation phase, with major currencies retracing around 30% and most altcoins over 50%. Will there be opportunities in the second half of 2024?
Fundamentally, two aspects are key:
1. Federal Reserve rate cuts are inevitable, whether this year or next.
2. Approval of spot ETFs. Over the decade since the birth of the crypto market, from initial chaos to gradual regulation, institutional involvement has become pivotal, potentially lengthening bullish cycles.
I speculate the frenzied altcoin season may commence in October 2024!
Based on BTC and ETH/BTC trend analysis over extended periods.
Comparative trend charts from 2019 to 2022 reveal:
In 2020, BTC initiated its third major uptrend wave two months after halving.
Bitcoin dominance (BTC-D) peaked in December 2020, seven months post-halving,
then began a steady decline. ETH/BTC similarly bottomed in December 2020; as the king of altcoins, ETH’s bullish trend began to strengthen.
This bull market’s rhythm is faster than that of 2021,
suggesting BTC-D may peak in October, six months post-halving, within a range of 57% to 60%. The launch of Ethereum ETFs in July may advance ETH/BTC’s bottoming timeline, but substantial action may still require waiting until after October.
Preparing for the market’s arrival
Our current period of consolidation has exceeded three months, suggesting market volatility has reached its peak.
I believe we are currently in a relative bottom range, nearing the end of adjustments. It’s advisable to consider accumulating positions in the 55,000 to 62,000 range, synchronized with altcoins. Whether major or minor, strive to lower the average purchase price; the rest of the space is left to contracts.
Neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum will trap anyone. Sell at the peak and buy after the drop; the market educates those attempting to buy at the lowest point. Ask yourself honestly, have you sold at the peak? If not, why assume confidence in timing the bottom?
Stick to one strategy: buy big dips, buy small dips, and invest steadily during consolidation.
