ASI
The concept of merging three coins into one has been under discussion since April! After the vote was passed, it was originally scheduled to go live in May or June, but due to poor market conditions, the project team kept delaying! I have been following the concept of merging three coins into one since April. The exchange ratio for exchanging the three coins for ASI is as follows: starting with $FET as the base token of the alliance, the $FET token will be renamed $ASI and an additional 1.48 billion tokens will be minted, with 867 million $ASI tokens allocated to $AGIX holders and 611 million $ASI tokens allocated to $OCEAN token holders. The total supply of ASI tokens will be 2.63 billion. Token holders will receive 0.433226 ASI for each OCEAN token and 0.43335 ASI for each AGIX token. This exchange rate is fixed and will not change. The valuation they announced in May was $7.5 billion. $7.5 billion divided by 2.63 billion coins equals 2.8! According to the announcement in May, ASI was expected to reach 2.8 when it went live (the announcement and valuation should be taken with a grain of salt). The project team has postponed the merger at least five times, and currently Coinbase does not support the merger! Foreigners simply cannot tolerate your bad habits! Those on Coinbase can only participate in the merger on other exchanges! These are the recent basic details of the merger of the three coins into one! Now let me share my thoughts with you! First: the attitude of domestic exchanges OKX and Binance towards the merger of the three coins is somewhat vague. You can check the announcement of the merger, which is basically not detailed, and many things are glossed over! Originally, it was exchanged for ASI, but now it has been changed to first exchange for FET and then exchange for ASI. This is also why FET has been under heavy selling pressure these past two days! Second: after multiple exchanges, the circulation of the tokens becomes unclear, which easily leads to a large number of “rat warehouses” and puts significant selling pressure on the newly listed token! There are also concerns about the snapshot time for FET and the pricing and market cap of ASI in the future, which are not clear. Third: in the cryptocurrency circle, you have to anticipate trends in advance rather than always chasing after them. How miserable would it be to always chase after trends? We started with the three coins merger in April, when the price difference was as high as 12% and we could easily profit! The current sell-off and selling pressure of the merged token has given chips to retail investors. Let’s see how it goes when it goes live. According to the normal rhythm, the estimated valuation given by the project team is around $2.8. If it opens low, it can be considered, but if it opens high and then falls, it’s not worth playing!!! It all depends on how the project teams of FET, AGIX, and OCEAN manipulate their coins. Regarding the merger of the three coins into one, we can observe and even miss out, but we shouldn’t make wild speculations and throw out multipliers like three times, five times, or ten times. That’s impossible. Don’t daydream! Fourth: the three coins in the merger are all well-established coins with a group of fans and followers. These people will also contribute to the ASI project in the future! Fifth: in the cryptocurrency market, there have been manipulations, splits, hard forks, and rebrandings, but the merger of the three coins into one is truly unprecedented! And it’s in the AI sector, where Nvidia is currently dominant and the sector is doing well. If ASI has a plan, it will also generate significant interest in the AI sector! (Here, let me boldly predict that if this wave takes off, there will be more coins in other sectors that will undergo mergers!) Let’s see how it goes when it opens! You can also compare the initial opening patterns of AGIX, OCEAN, and FET. We can take a look and see. The cryptocurrency market is not about clinging to outdated ideas, but about understanding the project teams’ manipulation techniques and being prepared.
Impending large-scale unlocking, will WLD continue to decline below $1?
Market data performance
WLD & BTC price correlation comparison
WLD’s current price is $2.227, with a circulating market cap of $550 million and a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $22.2 billion. The price has dropped over 80% from its all-time high of $11.72, and has fallen 53% in the past month, performing worse than BTC and most other altcoins.
WLD token chip price distribution
On-chain data shows a large number of chips distributed between $2.3 and $2.5, and there is also a large number of trapped chips above $6.6. According to the current price, the majority of addresses on the chain are in a floating loss position. The price faces significant resistance when moving up, but there is strong support at the current level in the short term.
Increased selling pressure from large-scale unlocking
Token economic distribution model
Community 75%: Most of these tokens will be distributed to users; some tokens will be used for ecosystem funds and network operations. The Worldcoin Foundation will govern the token distribution based on its articles of incorporation and gradually decentralize the decision-making process.
Initial development team 9.8%: Provide services to the Worldcoin Foundation and operate the World App.
TFH investors 13.5%: TFH investors provide funding to support the project. In particular, TFH has developed biometric imaging devices, the first version of the protocol and the World application, as well as the first ecosystem wallet.
Reserve 1.7%: Reserved to meet TFH’s future needs.
WLD token distribution model
Token circulation and unlocking supply plan
To facilitate the scale of Worldcoin in the coming years, the Worldcoin community may need a large number of tokens, possibly in the first few years after launch. That’s why 4 billion WLD tokens from the community will be unlocked within the first three years. However, the speed at which these tokens enter circulation is governed by governance and depends on the growth rate of the network.
TFH investor tokens: The tokens allocated to TFH investors will be contractually locked for 12 months after these investors exercise their respective token warrants, and then unlocked on average daily over the next 24 months.
Initial development team tokens: The tokens allocated to past and current team members will be contractually locked for 12 months after the release, and then unlocked on average daily over the next 24 months.
TFH reserve: The tokens allocated to the TFH reserve will be contractually locked for at least the same duration as the lock-up period for TFH investors and team members. The exact lock-up period will depend on the timing of the token allocation.
WLD unlocking supply curve
The total token issuance of WLD is 10 billion, and the current circulation accounts for only 16% of the total tokens. A large number of tokens are still in the unlocking state. Currently, the main unlocking tokens are held by the community, with a daily unlocking supply of 3.2 million tokens, which is approximately $7.13 million at the current price, accounting for about 1.29% of the total circulating market cap.
According to token.unlocks, after June 24th, WLD will face a larger daily unlocking supply, totaling 6.62 million tokens, which is approximately $16.28 million at market prices, accounting for about 10% of the past 24-hour trading volume. The unlocking supply of $16 million is even higher than Solana’s, considering that WLD’s circulating market cap is less than 1/100 of Solana’s and its trading volume is less than 1/10. Such a large unlocking supply, combined with the lack of market liquidity, makes it completely foreseeable that it will break below $1. Currently, there are voices in the community calling for changes to the unlocking rules, but the chances of implementation are likely to be slim.
The price of WLD rose to a high of $11.72 during the previous AI boom, but due to the lack of practical use cases for the token itself and a large number of unlocking tokens, the price has been falling steadily. It has already fallen to around $2 with no signs of a bottom. If the daily unlock of 7.6 million tokens (next unlock in July 24, 2024) is realized in the future, it is completely predictable that the price will break below $1.
Concerning on-chain data
According to data from Cryptorank, the top 10 addresses hold 91.19% of WLD, while the top 100 addresses hold 99.15%. Due to the distribution of community tokens and investor allocations, token distribution is highly concentrated, indicating strong control and a high possibility of manipulation of the price.
WLD (Worldcoin) new/active address change
WLD (Worldcoin) active addresses and price fluctuations
According to data from IntoTheBlock, due to the prolonged low enthusiasm for the price, the on-chain activity of WLD has seen a significant decline, with the number of active addresses dropping by more than half compared to the previous month. The lowest active address rate is only 2.5%, indicating a lack of sustained attraction for WLD after the speculation opportunities diminish.
AI sector narrative overall cooling
Similar to WLD’s situation, most AI concept tokens have experienced a general decline of over 30% in the past month. The previously hyped AI concepts (computing power services, AI computers, etc.) have failed to materialize, and these projects themselves cannot generate enough revenue to sustain their operations, let alone provide returns to investors. With no one willing to take over, the prices of these tokens have been plummeting.
Taking the GPU computing service platform io.net, which was previously hot, as an example, the actual GPU utilization rate is very low, with a large amount of idle resources. With a circulating market cap of $200 million and an FDV of over $2 billion, the network’s average daily revenue is less than $500, even though it is considered relatively high among a multitude of AI projects. This shows the severity of the bubble in the entire sector.
WLD is a project that leans towards the public welfare type and does not have a coherent business model. It relies heavily on the popularity of AI and the strong appeal of Sam Altman himself. The concept of combining public welfare with crypto seems promising at first glance, but past experiences have repeatedly shown that non-financial applications have a hard time in the crypto field. The long-term prospects for WLD are not optimistic.
Summary
WorldCoin’s UBI vision is grand, but its target audience in the crypto field is not investors. Due to its special connection with OpenAI, the release of new GPTs may have a certain positive impact on WLD’s price. However, with the overall lack of market liquidity, continuous unlocking of WLD, and weak narrative, there is still a significant downward potential for its price.
Since the current market price has already reflected the negative impact of the unlocking, the price may be maintained at a certain level in the short term. However, in the long run, if the project team does not take proactive measures or if the external market conditions do not improve, it is entirely possible for WLD to break below $1.
