CoinWorld News Report:
Reviewing this market correction:
In the first half of the year, the driving factors of the market included Bitcoin ETFs, halving events, and industry development narratives (such as inscriptions), all of which contributed to the independent rise of Bitcoin. Regardless of the market conditions, there is usually a pullback before and after the release of positive news. The extent of the pullback depends on the magnitude of the previous rise.
Predicted driving factors for the second half of the year:
These include the confirmation of Ethereum ETFs, the potential approval of SOL ETFs, as well as halving events and industry development narratives (especially those related to the Ethereum and SOL ecosystems).
Currently, these major positive factors have not yet materialized, but the expectations still exist. Once the positive factors are confirmed, funds will gradually flow into the market. With the influx of funds over time, the industry narrative will be influenced by positive news again, and the phased market trend will gradually come to an end.
I believe that the level above $52,000 may be the bottom of this round of adjustment. To fall below $52,000 to $42,000, there needs to be new major negative news, but I haven’t seen any at the moment. The bearish momentum is gradually weakening, as the saying goes, “the first burst is strong, then weak, and finally exhausted.”
A significant decline is unlikely to occur in the short term, and the longer the market volatility lasts, the stronger the support at the bottom becomes.
The extent of the adjustment of altcoins this time far exceeds market expectations, mainly because the previous increase was not significant, resulting in a relatively high decline.
From the perspective of following Bitcoin’s decline, it is reasonable, but a significant decline caused by liquidity issues is unreasonable.
The key issue lies in the emotional washout, and currently, altcoins represent the emotions of retail investors. The number of retail investors holding altcoins has reached a historical high, while the number of retail investors holding Bitcoin and Ethereum is relatively small. Only through a large-scale washout of altcoins can panic emotions in the bull market be alleviated, and the holdings of retail investors can be cleared, making the market healthier.
In conclusion, the most difficult phase is about to pass. Many major negative factors have been realized, and recent forced liquidation data is approaching the situation when FTX collapsed at the end of 2022. The characteristics of the bottom are gradually emerging, and it is recommended not to be too emotional in bearish views. It is possible that the current market bottom has been reached, and we will know the answer in a few months.
In addition, many people have lost confidence in altcoins now, and the objectives of the main players have been achieved. The second half of the year will be the arena for Ethereum, SOL, and altcoins. With the push of the several major positive factors I mentioned, altcoins will benefit the most. The second half of the year will be the peak period for retail investors to participate in the bull market, and altcoins will attract more people to enter the market through the wealth effect.
ZEN:
Due to the unfavorable market conditions, I haven’t dared to get on board myself, nor have I recommended you to do so. It has recently shown an independent market trend, and this coin can be worth paying attention to. If it can retrace to around 8, I will consider entering some positions, and if it breaks 10, I might chase it a little.
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ENS:
One of the best performers in the Ethereum ecosystem, on July 15, Ethereum’s spot file review is expected to boost ENS again. Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin has made multiple appearances, and ENS is about to undergo a brand transformation, which is equivalent to Ethereum’s own child. Technically, it is consolidating on the hourly chart, and a breakthrough of the range is expected to bring about a wave of upward movement.
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