The Coin界 website reports:
The past few months have been challenging for cryptocurrencies.
Although the price of BTC has not fallen significantly from its all-time high, the prices of many altcoins have dropped by more than 60-70% over the past few months.
Why has this happened?
I believe there are several reasons:
The U.S. and German governments are selling off BTC
The BTC repayment from Mt. Gox will begin this month
$(value in the billions of BTC) will be distributed to its users)
Historically, summer has been a season of poor performance for cryptocurrencies
The upcoming Ethereum现货ETF
(although its launch is generally considered to be bullish in the long term)
will unlock $9 billion worth of ETH from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust
Historically, halving has always been an event that triggers selling in the short term
—the BTC remained flat for 5 months after the last halving
I believe the main reason for such a large number of continuous sell-offs and the apparent lack of buyers seems to be the absence of major catalysts for cryptocurrencies in the short term.
Does this mean the bull market is over? I don’t think so.
We have many bullish catalysts in the fourth quarter of 2024, including the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, the U.S. presidential election (historically beneficial for cryptocurrencies), and FTX’s cash repayment.
I consider the FTX repayment particularly optimistic, as $16 billion in cash will be distributed to former FTX users—and many of them may choose to reinvest this money in cryptocurrencies.
Don’t forget, when BTC was valued at around $20,000, FTX collapsed. Most of those who invested in cryptocurrencies on FTX were crypto natives, holding a positive outlook on the long-term prospects of the industry.
However, there are still several months before the FTX repayment.
As I said, in the short term, I do not see any significant bullish catalysts.
I expect the market to remain volatile this summer, with the upward trend resuming at some point in late summer or early autumn.
This does not mean it is a good idea to sell all cryptocurrencies now and then try to buy them back at a lower price. I do believe we are closer to the bottom than the top.
But when the bottom will be reached is still unknown. Despite the dream peddled by pseudo-experts: it is quite possible to predict this point.
Personally, I believe it is a good time to accumulate high-belief coins, which is what I am doing now.
Ultimately, patience and faith will, as always, be repaid.
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