CoinWorld reported:
The first half of 2024 is about to end in the correction and consolidation of the cryptocurrency market. In this round, BTC rose rapidly under the influence of ETFs, while the performance of altcoins was relatively average, and many retail investors who missed out on BTC often complained about “not feeling involved.”
As the market continues to correct and consolidate, especially with many altcoins almost wiping out the gains of the past six months, new opportunities may be quietly brewing.
This article combines market hotspots and insights into future trends to take stock of the tracks and targets we believe are worth paying attention to in the second half of the year. The views expressed only represent current ideas.
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Macro perspective: Bull market is likely not over, risks and opportunities coexist
In the initial stage of this round, ETFs, BTC halving, and interest rate cuts have become deeply ingrained in people’s minds.
From the October incident last year when a well-known media outlet reported the “approval of ETFs,” to the official approval of BTC ETFs in early January, the expectation of ETFs has dominated the direction and game of the entire market.
The BTC halving in April did not cause drastic fluctuations in the market due to the influence of geopolitical conflicts at the time.
With the implementation of the first two core drivers, it is difficult for them to become the fuel for the subsequent market explosion.
Therefore, speculation around interest rate expectations and the improvement of liquidity due to interest rate cuts will be the biggest external driving force for the subsequent outbreak of the cryptocurrency market.
For most cryptocurrency investors, perhaps profiting from short-term volatility by waiting for the release of core data is not the main way to profit. Therefore, we only need to make it clear that over a longer time span, the market still has interest rate benefits to look forward to, which is enough to indicate that the bull market is likely not over, and the correction and consolidation imply the birth of opportunities.
Compared with the range of consolidation in this round and the previous round, we can see that the current BTC seems to present a frightening “M top” in terms of technical form, but the degree of correction is far less than the over 50% correction after the first surge in the previous round, and the consolidation time is much shorter than the previous round.
From a risk perspective, the depth of the BTC correction is relatively small compared to the previous round, and it may further test lower support levels in the face of the overlay of external negative news.
From an opportunity perspective, the formation time and magnitude of the “M top” are short, and the existence of interest rate expectations also indicates that the market is likely still gathering strength for the next climb, and the market has encountered support around 55,000.
Long-term opportunities are likely to exist, and the cost of chips and the preservation of principal will be the determining factors for the next wave of returns.
Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/mBmRDBZW/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT
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Meme: The most promising track of this round
2.1 Background and core logic of the track
The wealth creation myth of Memecoins such as $DOGE and $SHIB has been enduring in the industry and has also provided an opportunity for many users to enter the crypto market.
In this round, the status of Memecoins has been further highlighted, both in terms of market capitalization and trading volume, and it has gradually become one of the core tracks of the crypto market.
The total market capitalization of Memecoins has exceeded $50 billion, accompanied by a trading volume of over $4 billion.
From the ranking of Memecoins, we can see that Meme coins after $DOGE and $SHIB are the rising stars of this round, which further confirms the outstanding performance of Memecoins in this round.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/meme-token
In terms of return rate, Memecoins also have the highest overall return rate among all tracks, surpassing popular narratives such as RWA, AI, and DePIN.
Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uy6y45d9rinmxkoCj7d1EQ
The core reason why Memecoins have been sought after by investors in this round is that Memes have better odds.
Retail investors are more likely to get early chips:
With the expansion of the primary investment market in the crypto industry, the increase in project valuations by VC institutions has to some extent squeezed the profit space of retail investors. In contrast, the distribution of Memecoins is relatively fair, providing retail investors with more opportunities to get more chips, thereby significantly reducing the disadvantage in price.
Unlimited valuation, great imagination:
Most Memecoins do not have core businesses, and their valuations rely entirely on market imagination.
Low consensus threshold:
Memes carry content that is easier to understand, without requiring investors to have a large amount of fundamental knowledge, and can accommodate the consensus of the widest range of investors. In addition, Memecoins can capture various hotspots in the real world in real time, continuously attracting attention and funds.
The risk of Memes lies in the excessively large supply of tokens, making it difficult for investors to find certain targets, and Memecoins’ volatility brings not only high returns but also extremely high risks.
2.2 Focus on targets
It is difficult to evaluate and classify Memecoins from other perspectives, so below, we will select Memecoins with good odds based on their current market capitalization.
Compared with the old blue chips $DOGE and $SHIB, the newly emerging blue chips in this round have better opportunities.
2.2.1 Blue-chip level: $PEPE, $WIF
As one of the most prominent Memecoins in this round, $PEPE has shown extremely strong price performance.
As for the symbol of $PEPE itself, it is a widely circulated meme on major social media platforms, with high recognition.
From the perspectives of consensus among the meme community and cultural consensus, $PEPE is undoubtedly the preferred Memecoin investment.
In addition, the current market capitalization of $PEPE is about $5.3 billion, reaching the market capitalization level of $DOGE or $SHIB during its peak, indicating a certain level of odds and market acceptance.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/pepe
$WIF, as one of the most representative Memecoins on Solana, has also achieved outstanding performance in this round.
The image of wearing a hat has deeply rooted in people’s minds and has spawned various other Memecoins with hat-wearing images.
$WIF often shows strong rebound after a decline, making it a preferred target for many investors to buy low.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dogwifhat
2.2.2 Mid and small-cap: $DOG, $BOME
As the dragon in the Rune track, $DOG is very likely to explode with the rise of BTC in the future.
As an iteration and upgrade plan for Runes, which is an inscription, there is a chance that Runes will replicate the FOMO effect of inscriptions in the future, and the enthusiasm of retail investors is easier to stimulate.
In addition, the label of a new asset and the expectation of listing on an exchange that has not yet been realized may also become the core factors driving the rise of $DOG.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dog-go-to-the-moon-runes-2
$BOME is also a representative asset of this round, breaking the record and surpassing $1 billion in market capitalization within three days of being listed on Binance, and it holds an important position in the minds of investors.
$BOME still belongs to the PEPE cultural category, and its current market capitalization is about one-tenth of $PEPE. Although it peaked at its debut and has not started a second market, $BOME has the potential to explode.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/book-of-meme
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AI / DePIN: Riding the wave of AI development
3.1 Background and core logic of the track
The explosion of ChatGPT has completely ignited the entire AI industry, and the impact of AI on humanity has been elevated to the level of the “Fourth Industrial Revolution.” The explosion of AI is directly and profoundly affecting the cryptocurrency industry through the core logics of the digital economy and hardware demand.
As the penetration rate of AI in people’s daily work and life continues to increase, the issue of computing power becomes more prominent, and the market is constantly raising the price of computing power for companies like NVIDIA.
Computing power equipment is also a core pillar of the cryptocurrency industry. Before the explosion of AI, the demand for computing power in the cryptocurrency industry had long entered the high-growth period of companies like NVIDIA.
With the development of the cryptocurrency industry, computing power has become surplus, and AI has gradually become the demand side for this idle computing power.
In addition, the execution of AI tasks, resource allocation, and the input of data elements all occur in the digital world, and the distribution of interests behind them is difficult to clearly define within the traditional framework. We tentatively call it a digital economy dispute.
The characteristics of the cryptocurrency industry, such as bookkeeping and proof of work, can naturally be used to solve this digital dispute and coordinate the interests behind AI software and hardware.
The explosion of AI coincidentally provides a clear development direction for Crypto in the bear market. Various distributed AI computing power, algorithm projects, etc., have emerged, forming the current AI/DePIN track.
As the AI/DePIN track becomes more deeply connected with AI, the actions of companies such as NVIDIA and OpenAI are beginning to influence the market of related tokens. With the emergence of hotspots driven by AI technology advancements, the cryptocurrency industry will develop in line with the trends and hotspots of the AI market.
3.2 Focus on targets
Currently, Crypto x AI projects have penetrated into various aspects of AI. Below, we will analyze targets worth paying attention to from the perspectives of computing power supply, algorithms, and the AI economy.
3.2.1 Computing power supply
The AI products we currently use rely on underlying large language models, and the construction of large language models relies on GPU computing. The cryptocurrency industry not only has a reserve of computing power equipment but can also build a computing power market through blockchain incentives to provide additional sources of computing power for AI.
Keywords such as distributed and idle computing power are characteristics of the cryptocurrency industry’s provision of computing power, and the corresponding core narrative is cost reduction.
3.2.1.1 Arweave/AO
Arweave, as an established storage project, has firmly occupied a leading position in the storage track with its excellent ecosystem and cost-effectiveness.
With the launch of the computing platform AO, Arweave has officially entered the distributed computing market and has become a concept token for computing power.
Compared to other computing power projects, AO can naturally leverage Arweave’s existing storage advantages to achieve high coordination between the computing layer and the storage layer, which is crucial for on-chain large models.
In addition, AO has made aggressive designs in parallel computing, message passing, and other aspects, bringing it stronger performance compared to other distributed computing projects. Therefore, AO actually has a natural advantage in terms of computing power.
The launch of the AO platform and related public relations activities (PR) have jointly promoted the rise in the price of $AR, which indicates market recognition of AO.
With the continued development of Crypto x AI, $AR/AO will become one of the most promising AI tokens.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/arweave
3.2.1.2 io.net
io.net, recently listed on Binance, is currently the hot chicken in this track. io.net is a decentralized GPU network that aims to provide massive computing power for machine learning applications.
Their vision is to unlock fair access to computational capacity by assembling over one million GPUs from independent data centers, crypto miners, and projects like Filecoin, making computing more scalable, accessible, and efficient.
io.net offers a completely different approach to cloud computing, utilizing distributed and decentralized models to provide users with more control and flexibility over computing power, without the need for licenses and at low costs.
According to io.net, their computing power is 90% lower than centralized service providers like Amazon AWS. The combination of all these factors makes io.net a standout player among decentralized providers.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/io-net
3.2.2 Algorithms
3.2.2.1 Bittensor
Bittensor is a decentralized network that connects global machine learning models, improving the accuracy and efficiency of solving complex problems by collaborating multiple specialized AI models. This method combines the unique advantages of each model to produce more accurate and comprehensive results, which are more outstanding compared to traditional single-model methods.
Bittensor also achieves scalability by building an ecosystem. Currently, it can accommodate 32 subnets to serve various vertical scenarios.
Bittensor’s practice in algorithms and ecosystems is highly innovative, fully utilizing decentralization to stimulate AI. Its current market capitalization is close to $6 billion, making it a relatively stable target.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bittensor
3.2.3 AI Economy
3.2.3.1 Artificial Superintelligence Alliance ($ASI)
ASI is the merger of three Crypto x AI projects, Ocean Protocol ($OCEAN), SingularityNET ($AGIX), and Fetch.ai ($FET), that have been deeply involved in related fields for many years.
After the merger, the three projects will establish a team called the Superintelligence Collective, with Ben Goertzel, the founder of SingularityNET, serving as the CEO.
The three projects will still operate as independent entities but will closely collaborate in the shared $ASI token ecosystem and the operation of the Superintelligence Collective.
The merger announcement issued by the three teams does not provide much information about the new business to be carried out after the merger.
According to Ben Goertzel’s statement on his social media, after the merger, the future work direction will revolve around AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and ASI (Artificial Superintelligence), which is also the reason why the merged token is named $ASI.
Token conversion information:
Fetch.ai’s $FET will be converted to $ASI at a ratio of 1:1.
SingularityNET’s $AGIX and Ocean Protocol’s $OCEAN will be converted to $ASI at a ratio of approximately 1:0.433.
$FET, as the foundation token of the alliance, will be directly renamed to $ASI and an additional 1.48 billion tokens will be minted, of which$867 million ASI allocated to $AGIX holders, $611 million ASI allocated to $OCEAN token holders. Fetch.ai has mature experience in AI agents and has announced a $100 million infrastructure investment project called “Fetch Compute” this month. Ocean Protocol has built various module services in decentralized data sharing, access control, and payments. SingularityNET is the project that has explored the most in the AGI direction among these three projects. ASI, which is the result of the merger of three well-established projects, is expected to achieve a new leading position in the Crypto x AI field. RWA is the key track that connects blockchain with the real world and is a necessary requirement for the large-scale application of blockchain. RWA involves tokenizing illiquid real-world assets and introducing them into the crypto market. Social is an important track in both Web2 and Web3, and social solutions play a crucial role in user acquisition and retention. LSD/LSDfi is a key component for building ETH ecosystem basic income. BTC ecosystem has the potential for a breakout.
