CoinWorld reported:
Characteristics of Top Players: Super Diamond Hands, 40%-45% win rate, profit-loss ratio above 1:5.
Written by: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily
Recently, the Ethereum meme craze has returned, and on-chain gas fees have also seen a resurgence. On the other hand, the atmosphere and players in the Ethereum meme market give the public the impression of “diamond hands” compared to other chains. Are the real winners the “diamond hands” or PvP experts? What are their data characteristics?
Odaily Planet Daily has compiled a list of the top 100 profitable addresses for twenty meme tokens, including BURGER with millions in market value, DOGE worth tens of millions, and Nerio and MOG with market caps exceeding one billion, to analyze their multidimensional characteristics.
**Data Sources and Processing Explanation**
The data for this article comes from GMGN. The unmodified basic data includes 7-day profits, 30-day profits, 30-day win rates, and wallet balances. Custom data includes:
– **Total Profit:** Due to discrepancies in total profit data for many addresses on GMGN, this article uses the profit value of “the ten tokens with the highest profits” minus “the ten tokens with the highest losses” as a substitute for total profit. If there are fewer than ten, the calculation is based on the available number.
– **Top Profit:** Tokens marked as “insufficient liquidity” on GMGN but with significant profits have been excluded, as they are often fraudulent tokens created to manipulate market capitalization. The profits for the top 1, 3, and 5 tokens are then calculated, similarly for losses.
– **Average Profit per Purchase/Sale:** 30-day total profit ÷ number of purchases/sales within 30 days.
Additionally, addresses that had duplicate entries, received large amounts of tokens through transfers (which may cause issues in profit calculations), and MEV Bot addresses were manually removed. In total, there are 1,581 addresses.
**Wallet Data Analysis**
How many diamond hands are there?
The 1,581 addresses recorded a total profit of $208 million, with an average profit of $131,900;
Among them, the top profit token brought these addresses $190 million in profit, with an average profit of $120,700;
The top loss token incurred a total loss of $30.9 million, with an average loss of $19,500.
It is evident that this “smart money” performs well in terms of profit-loss ratios, with a 600% profit-loss ratio requiring only a 14% win rate to break even.
Furthermore, Odaily segmented the addresses by total profit amounts and included analyses for top 3 and top 5 profit-loss ratios, as shown in the following chart:
Addresses with higher total profits exhibit higher profit-loss ratios or “diamond hand levels”;
The profit-loss ratio for the top 1 is higher than that for the top 3 and 5, indicating that these “smart money” addresses often achieve significant profits through individual tokens.
**How Frequently Do Diamond Hands Make Moves?**
Additionally, we excluded addresses with ETH balances of less than 0.1 ETH or those that did not engage in transactions within the past 30 days. The remaining addresses averaged 337 transactions over 30 days, detailed by total profit range in the following table:
Surprisingly, the addresses with the highest profits have a transaction frequency significantly higher than those in other ranges; perhaps these addresses are more frequently seeking opportunities.
Moreover, the average profit per transaction for the addresses with the highest profits far exceeds that of others. Upon verification, it was found that a few addresses purchased several tens of thousands of dollars in tokens before Nerio was listed on Binance, leading to exceptionally high average profits for individual addresses;
The ratio of “average profit per sale to average profit per purchase” for addresses with profits exceeding $100,000 is significantly lower than for other ranges, indicating that these addresses tend to make infrequent purchases and then sell in batches.
**Win Rate and Profit Interpretation**
Similarly, we analyzed the win rates, 7-day profits, and 30-day profits by range, with results shown in the following table:
It can be observed that, unlike Solana, the win rates for profitable addresses across all ranges are not particularly high. Combined with the previous two sections, it seems that maintaining a certain win rate should focus on expanding the profit-loss ratio.
(For a detailed analysis of Solana smart money, refer to “Insight into a Thousand Solana ‘Smart Wallets’: Who is Making a Killing? What Can Be Learned?”)
Addresses with profits exceeding $200,000 show 7-day profits and 30-day profits that are very close, primarily due to substantial profits from some addresses in Nerio in recent days. This implies that addresses in the $50,000-$200,000 profit range exhibit slightly better sustained profit capabilities, warranting attention from readers who prefer this strategy.
Addresses with negative profits exhibit low win rates and sustainable losses and can also serve as a reference for “contrarian indicators.”
**Appendix**
The complete data for Ethereum smart addresses can be found here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFkd-eu9oTKgEhbUJ9X6kcwQMhromkFd65Is_M8FzZ0/edit?usp=sharing
The complete data for Solana smart money analyzed in July can be found here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HIKLZF-XKf2EFcj-nvBX3Lj_HapQ-UqMeIgLJCtEN_0/edit?usp=sharing
