According to Coin界网:
Original source: Crypto A Yao
Despite a 10.87% increase in the price of Pepe (PEPE) over the past week, other developments may undermine the bullish potential of this meme coin. This apparent signal has raised concerns about a sudden sell-off or profit-taking.
Currently, PEPE is trading at $0.0000080, facing challenges in reaching $0.000013. Although investors may anticipate a rapid rise, on-chain analysis indicates that a gradual pullback seems more likely.
Distribution of Pepe holders signifies trouble
On September 21, the price of this frog-themed token reached a monthly high of $0.0000083. Prior to this, bulls ensured that it would not drop below $0.0000071 five days earlier. However, data from Santiment shows that on Monday, the daily on-chain transaction volume for Pepe surged to $4.48 trillion.
This on-chain metric tracks the number of tokens that have realized gains over a specific period. A significant decrease in realized gains typically increases the likelihood of a price rise, as it indicates that investors are holding their positions rather than cashing out. Conversely, a substantial increase in realized gains often leads to price declines due to heightened sell pressure.
For PEPE, at the current price, this data suggests that investors have realized profits exceeding $35 million. This indicates that some investors are locking in gains, and if profit-taking continues, it may exert downward pressure on the price.
Another indicator supporting the downward trend is the token holding period—this metric reflects the duration investors hold tokens without selling. Over a 30-day timeframe, the holding period for PEPE has increased by 90%.
However, in the past week, this ratio has dropped by 15%, signaling that this meme coin faces sell pressure. If this trend persists, the bullish price outlook for PEPE may not remain sustainable in the short term.
PEPE price forecast: Possible decline
From a technical standpoint, the price of PEPE suggests it is poised to move towards $0.000013 at some point. This would represent a 63% increase from current levels. However, indicators from the Ichimoku Cloud and Balance of Power (BoP) suggest that this cryptocurrency may face a correction.
The Ichimoku Cloud is a technical indicator used to assess trend direction as well as spot support and resistance. When the Ichimoku Cloud is below the price, support is strong, and the price is likely to rise. However, as of the time of writing, this indicator is above the price of PEPE.
As a result, a pullback may occur due to resistance. The BoP, which measures the strength of buyers relative to sellers, is also moving downward, indicating that sellers have the upper hand. Given this situation, the price of Pepe could fall to $0.0000074.
However, if realized gains begin to decrease, the price of PEPE may appreciate again. In this scenario, the short-term target for this meme coin could be around $0.000010 before attempting to reach $0.000013
