Trump sets a record with Harris election odds reaching 301 on Polymarket

CoinNetwork reported:
The probability of Donald Trump winning the presidential election has just skyrocketed to a record-breaking 30.1%, with Kamala Harris as his opponent.
According to data from Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-driven prediction platform, Trump holds 65.1% of the shares, while Harris holds 35%. This platform is becoming the preferred choice for cryptocurrency enthusiasts and election observers who are eager to bet on real-time changes.
Forget traditional polls – the reaction of this market is much faster, although it still falls short of the liquidity of major financial markets. Founder Shayne Coplan said, “It may feel like a cultural phenomenon, but it is still small as a financial market.”


Polymarket was founded only four years ago. After the 2016 election, the errors of polling agencies made prediction markets highly attractive.
Unlike traditional polls, people here are risking money, which according to Elon Musk makes them “more accurate.” The platform gained fame by predicting Biden’s withdrawal before others saw it.
Betting on Trump’s Surge
Trump is favored by cryptocurrency voters. His chances of winning key swing states average around 64%. On the other hand, Harris holds 35% of the shares.
His odds have slightly decreased in states like Wisconsin and Michigan, falling below 60%, but he is still the frontrunner.
The surge in Trump’s chances is not accidental. Several high-stakes gamblers have made huge bets on his victory.
In particular, four individuals have collectively lost $25 million, significantly increasing Trump’s odds. Meanwhile, platforms like PredictIt limit individual bets to $850 to avoid this kind of influence.
Whales and Liquidity
Polymarket’s growth has been explosive. At the beginning of the year, the company locked in $9.5 million in stablecoins on its platform. By August, this number soared to $220 million.
The platform’s lifetime trading volume has surpassed $1 billion, with nearly $430 million related to the US presidential election.
However, despite the growth of Polymarket, its liquidity remains relatively low and susceptible to manipulation by a few major players. The anonymity of traders only adds to people’s concerns.
There are rumors that traders may manipulate prices by trading with themselves.
In recent weeks, as big spenders placed heavy bets on Trump’s victory, the platform has increased its scrutiny. A user named Fredi9999 has so far bet over $18 million on Republican election results. Out of this, Trump alone has received $13 million, making Fredi9999 the top bettor on the platform.
On-chain analysts believe that Fredi9999 is not acting alone. According to detectives on Arkham Intelligence and X (formerly Twitter), Fredi9999 and three other accounts may be controlled by the same person.
These accounts together have bet over $43 million less than the Republican results. All of these accounts have been verified to be located outside the United States, as Polymarket does not allow residents there to trade on its platform.
Polymarket is taking measures to carefully examine the compliance of its users, especially those who engage in large-scale betting, to ensure they are not violating any rules.
The surge in bets on Trump has also caught the attention of regulatory authorities. In early 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket for providing illegal trading services.
As part of the settlement agreement, the platform agreed to gradually reduce its services in the United States and focus on the international market.
Yesterday, CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam shared his concerns about election-related gambling, warning that it could pose risks to democracy itself. “This puts us in a very difficult position,” he said.
Behnam urged Congress to consider whether betting on elections should be allowed, explaining that the stakes are higher than ever before.
Polymarket’s shares are priced based on the probability of outcomes. For example, if the chance of Trump winning is priced at 60 cents, then his probability of winning is 60%.
If Trump wins, buyers will receive $1 per share. If he loses, the shares are worthless. The betting market is highly volatile, with odds changing rapidly.
Over $1.1 billion has been bet on the US presidential race, breaking records on Polymarket. Whether these bets will translate into real-world results remains to be seen.