Kalshi data shows Trump leading with a 633 probability before the election

CoinWorld reports:
The probability of Trump’s prediction market has soared after his support for cryptocurrency during his campaign and public appearances.
Kalshi’s data reflects Trump’s strong position as the election approaches.
As the US presidential election approaches, competition is intensifying, and the prediction market is showing significant changes.
Trump surpasses Harris
Former President Donald Trump is leading on major platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, with his chances of winning soaring to over 60%.
Polymarket data now reflects a significant gap of 26.5 percentage points between Trump and Harris;
This marks a slight increase from the earlier prediction of 61.3%.
It is reported that after a widely publicized visit to a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, his numbers soared. Pennsylvania is a key battleground state where he receives strong support.
According to the latest data from Polymarket, Trump is leading with 64.1% of the votes, while Harris is trailing with 35.9%.
In contrast, Kalshi reports Trump at 60% and Harris at 40%.
All of this is due to Trump’s clear support for cryptocurrency from the beginning.
However, despite his initial lead, his chances in the prediction market began to decline after the first presidential debate.
Kalshi prediction platform
Therefore, for those unaware, Kalshi is a relatively new entrant in the field of election prediction and has made significant progress since launching contracts following a favorable ruling by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in October.
Although starting later, Kalshi’s trading volume for the primary contracts has already exceeded $30 million.
While this number lags behind Polymarket, which reached around $40 million in the first month of presidential betting and recently surpassed $2 billion, Kalshi’s regulated platform gives it a distinct advantage once legal victories enter the market.
However, some critics, such as Mark Cuban,
suggest
that foreign investments may distort betting odds as US citizens are officially prohibited from participating in these platforms.
He said:
“From all indications, most of the funds entering Polymarket are foreign funds, so I don’t think it means much.”
Kalshi vs Polymarket
However, it is worth noting that Kalshi’s platform shows Republican candidate Trump leading Democratic competitor Harris by 14 percentage points. Unlike the competitor Polymarket, Kalshi only allows US citizens and permanent residents to participate due to strict compliance with regulatory requirements.
On the other hand, Polymarket prohibits US traders but lacks Kalshi’s strict verification process for crypto-based betting.
Although initially concerned that Kalshi’s regulatory status may be a disadvantage, it protects the platform from foreign interference and manipulation allegations, which is a challenge faced by Polymarket.
In response, co-founder Tarek Mansour agrees,
emphasizing
in a detailed post on X (formerly known as Twitter), he said:
As expected, he summed it up best when he said;
“Media claims: Some whales are pushing up Trump’s odds. Fact: Harris’s median bet is larger than Donald Trump’s median bet. Trump’s odds are not the result of a few people pushing up the odds. Quite the opposite.”