Republican Senator Ted Cruz Warns of Potential “Bloody Midterm” in 2026 if Trump’s Tariffs Push U.S. Economy into Recession
Republican Senator Ted Cruz warned on Friday that if President Donald Trump’s tariffs push the U.S. economy into recession, there could be a potential “bloody bathtub” in the 2026 midterm elections.
According to the Financial Times, the Texas lawmaker stated that a prolonged trade war could have devastating consequences for both the economy and the Republican Party’s political prospects.
Cruz, who usually aligns with Trump, was unusually direct in his comments. He described the likelihood of sustained clashes over retaliatory tariffs with other countries as a “terrible outcome.”
In his view, if a tariff stalemate leads to a recession, “especially a bad recession,” voters may turn sharply against the party. Cruz said, “Politically, 2026 is likely to be bloody.” The Canadian-born Texan added that even with a Republican Senate majority (currently 53-47), survival could be in jeopardy if the economy falters and people blame the party in power.
Republican lawmakers have begun to share these concerns. Their unease intensified after Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” triggered a global market retreat, wiping about $5.4 trillion off the stock market’s value. Observers are worried that if these measures are implemented indefinitely, ongoing trade tensions could harm U.S. exporters, jeopardize jobs, and exacerbate inflation.
Democrats Seek to Repeal Tariffs
On Thursday, Republican Senator Chuck Grassley joined forces with Democrats to introduce a bill that would reaffirm Congress’s power over tariff policies. Under the proposed legislation, new tariffs would expire within 60 days unless Congress votes to keep them in place. Lawmakers would also have the authority to repeal existing levies.
By Friday, Republican Senators Lisa Murkowski, Mitch McConnell, Jerry Moran, and Thom Tillis had signed on as co-sponsors. Although the bill may not progress imminently, the growing support indicates that many within the party are wary of the president’s stance and concerned about potential impacts before the 2026 midterms.
Signs of discontent emerged this week when conservative candidates backed by Elon Musk lost the state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin. Republicans also performed poorly in two special House elections in Florida.
These setbacks have fueled skepticism about current trade policies, which are crucial for the party to maintain control of both chambers of Congress. Cruz stated that if the U.S. is in the midst of an economic recession, “people are hurting badly,” and they may turn against the Republican Party. “They punish the party.”
Cruz also suggested to Trump that tariffs would usher in a “booming economy.” He indicated that only a comprehensive reduction of tax rates by the U.S. and any retaliatory countries would lead to “huge economic prosperity.”
Otherwise, if tariffs become permanent, he predicted “real damage” to the economy and warned that a mature trade war “will destroy jobs here.” The senator cautioned that this would also have a “strong upward impact on inflation.” He warned that further escalation could plunge the country into lasting harm.
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