The approval process for Ethereum spot ETF seems to have entered the final stage. Today (27th), Reuters quoted industry executives and related participants as saying that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve the Ethereum spot ETF as early as July 4th.
After the SEC approved 8 Ethereum spot ETF 19b-4 exchange rule change files in May, all applicants submitted updated versions of the S-1 registration application on June 22nd. Once the SEC approves the final S-1 file, the Ethereum spot ETF can be listed and traded within 24 hours.
Two anonymous company executives revealed that the process of amending the S-1 file has progressed to the point where only “minor issues” remain to be resolved. A lawyer working with one of the issuers also stated that the approval process is currently “in the final stage” and approval “may not exceed one or two weeks.”
Although the SEC declined to comment on this, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler revealed in an interview yesterday that the current progress is “smooth.”
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who accurately predicted the launch time of Bitcoin futures/spot ETF, also optimistically predicted that the SEC is likely to officially approve these ETFs next week, and he predicts that the Ethereum spot ETF will be listed as early as “July 2nd.”
Current signs indicate that the listing of the Ethereum spot ETF is only one step away, but many ETF and cryptocurrency analysts believe that the influx of funds after the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF will be much less than that of the Bitcoin spot ETF listed earlier this year.
James Butterfill, research director at Coinshares, commented that “the market value and trading volume of Ethereum are of a different order of magnitude than Bitcoin.”
Bryan Armour, an ETF analyst at Morningstar, pointed out: “Given the differences in the market size and nature of the two cryptocurrencies, the influx of funds when the Ethereum ETF is launched may be more moderate.”
However, at present, market analysts have extreme views on the price of ETH. Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, also expressed a conservative view on the impact of the Ethereum ETF, estimating that the market flow of the spot ETF is about 15% of Bitcoin’s, and personally predicting that the price will be between $2,400 and $3,000.
On the other hand, digital asset trading company QCP Capital has a different view, stating that the options market currently shows optimism, and that if the Ethereum spot ETF can capture 10% to 20% of the flow of the Bitcoin spot ETF, it may push the ETH price over $4,000 and approach its historical high of $4,800.
In terms of price, the ETF briefly rose above $3,400 in the early hours of today, but has since fallen to $3,377 (a 1.1% decrease in the past 24 hours), and Ethereum has fallen by 12% in the past 30 days.
