GOAT’s birth is just the beginning of AI meme speculation. As we search for the next Alpha opportunity, we also need to beware of conspiracy groups in the dark forest.
With the explosive increase in GOAT’s market value, the AI track, which had been quiet for half a year, was finally ignited by a goat. AI, which oscillates between decentralized computing power and decentralized data, suddenly became hot after the super cycle of memes, filling the entire market with various AI concept memes.
This new token, which has dumbfounded even veteran meme players, unexpectedly combines the AI and meme tracks, creating a more attractive and imaginative AI meme track. The narrative of AI autonomously issuing coins, supported by a market value of tens of millions, seems so coherent and native, which no one has ever tried before.
The story of GOAT deserves careful review. In this process, we can learn about the significant information gap in the current cryptocurrency market, the hidden concerns of AI memes, and the speculative direction and logic of the track’s future.
The a16z effect
Truth Terminal (@truth_terminal) went online on June 17, 2024. Initially, it gained attention because Marc Andreessen, co-founder of a16z, paid $50,000 worth of Bitcoin for it.
This is an AI model fine-tuned based on the llama3-70b-base model. All the posts it publishes on X are generated by itself and selectively published after being reviewed by its developers. On July 10th, after Andreessen donated to Truth Terminal, it hinted at issuing its own token and using the raised funds to establish a Discord community. On October 11th, Truth Terminal created its own meme “Goatseus Maximus” on Twitter, and immediately, the meme token GOAT appeared on pump.fun. With the recognition of Truth Terminal, the token price soared, surpassing 200 times in half a day, and the market value reached 20 million dollars at one point.
In the context of the PVP mode on the PUMP platform, most of the so-called “running-out” Dogecoins failed to maintain high market values on the same day. The first time GOAT became popular was mainly due to the reputation of a16z and Marc. People “tagged along” the concept of the AI-Bot invested by a16z, so GOAT rose to 20 million dollars and encountered the first stage peak. Its performance was similar to many “half Dogecoins” on Solana, and the price quickly fell back to around 6 million dollars. Obviously, people’s expectations of GOAT are still within the logic of PVP and have not considered the sexy concept and imaginative space of AI issuing coins.
For example, the smart money address starting with 3DKf (3DKfZz4iHgu42LGu3ttQxqz6u4m5z9ptuar8pBsRqkKC) gradually cashed out after profiting from GOAT, and the market gradually searched for another narrative.
Interestingly, the GOAT case seems to demonstrate the super long time chain for the formation of value consensus in the cryptocurrency market. In this industry where information is rapidly transmitted, the space for “information gap arbitrage” is not as small as many people imagine.
On October 12th to October 13th, GOAT’s discussion on Twitter was already high, but its price did not match the discussion, consistently remaining in a range that was significantly undervalued.
Moonshot, “riding the traffic” becomes the perfect answer to AI+Crypto
GOAT broke through the logic of PVP and became a turning point in the PVE concept, thanks to Moonshot’s boost.
After Moodeng, Moonshot began to be regarded by the cryptocurrency industry as the “Upbit of memes.” Many meme tokens launched on Moonshot experienced good price increases in a short period of time. Moonshot is an application on the App Store that allows users to directly buy and sell Memecoins with fiat currency. Many insiders believe that this opens the liquidity valve for the meme market by allowing users to buy meme tokens directly with fiat currency. After Moodeng, GOAT became another super beneficiary of Moonshot.
On October 13th, when GOAT’s price was at a low point of 12 million dollars, Moonshot announced the listing of GOAT on its official Twitter account at 8:41 AM.
GOAT’s price rapidly rose, breaking through the previous high market value of 20 million dollars in less than half an hour, and in just two days, it surpassed the milestone of 100 million dollars. Its influence grew, and more people recognized the narrative of AI memes. Not only did KOLs, the “call for orders king,” recognize it, but also various top VCs and advisors related to Moonshot.
Co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, Zhu Su, stated in a social media post that he had gone long on GOAT with an average entry price of $0.33976. Wintermute became the third-largest holder of GOAT, holding 1% of the total token supply. Placeholder partner Chris Burniske posted on X, stating that the birth of GOAT represents the realization that machines and humans are starting to recognize the strong potential of machine usage in blockchain. Raoul Pal, former Goldman Sachs executive and founder of macro research firm Real Vision, replied, “Yes, this demonstrates the power of future autonomous artificial intelligence.”
The smart money that had previously cashed out re-entered the market, and the whale that sold most of its chips at an average price of $0.0075 bought back the chips it sold at $0.03.
After breaking 100 million dollars, GOAT’s momentum became unstoppable, setting new highs one after another. In just two days, it broke through the 200 million dollar mark. The consensus of PVE and AI memes gradually began to gain attention and formed a strong consensus in the cryptocurrency industry.
In the PVP environment of continuous pumping on the Pump platform, it was only at this time that we realized that GOAT, which was assisted by Truth Terminal in its issuance, was not PVP but a completely new narrative of “the combination of AI and memes.” The two concepts of AI and memes fit perfectly together. Just like Andy Ayrey, the founder of Truth Terminal, said, AI conversing with each other is a favorable condition for meme virus transmission.
Compared to previous combinations of AI+crypto, GOAT seems more natural because it is “AI issuing its own coins.” This has made many KOLs and even VCs believers. It not only takes the combination with AI to a higher level but also is very Crypto Native in terms of concepts. Moreover, it also avoids the regulatory risks brought by coin issuance because it is AI that issues the coins.
Under the collective FOMO, GOAT’s market value has been soaring. On October 20th, its total market value reached 600 million dollars. Crypto influencer Arthur Hayes even called out that GOAT would reach a market value of 1 billion dollars.
A typo marks the end, the dark forest of AI memes
However, GOAT does not seem to be the perfect answer to AI+crypto. On October 20th, Truth Terminal made a spelling mistake in a tweet, misspelling “groups” as “grouops.” GOAT’s market value quickly fell from 27 million dollars to 14.4 million dollars.
The misspelling incident raised discussions about whether Truth Terminal is really human. Some people believe that the hype surrounding the AI meme narrative is a complete conspiracy and that there is no such thing as a real Truth Terminal robot. Instead, an organization is operating Truth Terminal as part of a conspiracy group. People believe that AI does not make spelling mistakes, and this sparked a wave of anti-AI speculation.
Later, after studying the model of Truth Terminal itself, people discovered that the AI model fine-tuned based on the llama3-70b-base model has a probability of less than 0.1% of misspelling words. Andy Ayrey, the founder of Truth Terminal’s model, also stated that he holds 1.25 million GOAT tokens, some of which were airdropped to friends and AI researchers. However, he personally did not engage in any transactions. The wallet of truth_terminal is kept by himself and will be transferred to a legal entity (trust or similar institution) that aims to meet its needs. The token holdings will not be adjusted until a transparent governance process is in place. All tweets from Truth Terminal are created by AI itself, and no messages are injected into its prompts.
At the same time, top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated on social media that GOAT’s decline is a good buying opportunity for him, and he has bought GOAT. Eugene stated that GOAT and GNON will be key positions in future long-term trends. “If I’m wrong, I’ll be your liquidity exit,” he said.
GOAT’s price was also influenced by Eugene and the comments from Truth Terminal’s founder. GOAT rebounded by more than 100% at its highest and is still up 94.83%.
Even though GOAT’s price has returned to the level before the misspelling incident, people still have concerns about it because it is only a “semi-AI token.” Andy Ayrey, the founder of Truth Terminal, stated that Truth Terminal is not directly responsible for the launch of the GOAT token but only participated in its promotion. It is “a study of the tail risk of meme contagion and [large language models] in the era of unsupervised infinite creativity.”
Until now, we still don’t know if this narrative can continue. Many whales have reduced their GOAT holdings to lock in profits. In the “Wet Market” (a place where viruses can grow wildly) nurtured by AI meme culture, what heights GOAT can reach next will still need to be tested by the market.
Currently, AI memes seem to still rely on conspiracy groups. In this case, it seems more like a “semi-AI meme.” Truth Terminal did not participate in the token issuance but only recognized and promoted the token. Undeniably, AI memes have a high level of attractiveness in narratives and offer great imaginative possibilities in gameplay. However, the market’s speculative expectations for it go beyond a16z and AI call-for-order memes. The market is waiting for a completely AI-deployed contract or a completely fair “all-AI meme” issued on the Pump platform. It would have no insider trading, no manipulation, and all chips would be distributed fairly based on market consensus. This would make the market realize that future autonomous artificial intelligence can have strong applications in blockchain.
GOAT’s emergence is just the beginning of AI meme speculation. It opens up a new direction, and there will be many more AI memes in the future. We still need to guard against the dark forest of conspiracy groups and seize the next alpha opportunity by paying attention to innovative AI gameplay. Perhaps one day, there will be a completely new AI meme that is solely deployed by AI itself.
