Reported by Coin World Network:
Source: Asset Allocation Research Society
The U.S. election results are in.
Trump has been elected as the 47th President of the United States.
On November 8, 2016, Trump was elected as the 45th President of the United States.
It has been 8 years since his last election as President. Below is a summary of the performance of major asset classes following Trump’s previous election as U.S. President.
(Note: The current macroeconomic and monetary policies differ from those in 2016)
1. U.S. Dollar Trend After Trump’s Previous Election
The rise in risk aversion sentiment benefited the U.S. dollar.
2. Nasdaq Index Trend After Trump’s Previous Election
Financial, industrial, and pharmaceutical sectors led the U.S. stock market.
3. S&P 500 Trend After Trump’s Previous Election
Financial, industrial, and pharmaceutical sectors led the U.S. stock market.
4. U.S. Treasury Yield Trend After Trump’s Previous Election
Under the expectation of Trump’s “loose fiscal” policies post-election, combined with the Federal Reserve’s rate hike expectations, U.S. Treasury yields rose rapidly, with the November median rising quickly from 1.8% to 2.6%.
5. Gold Trend After Trump’s Previous Election
In the short term, gold declined after Trump’s last election.
6. Crude Oil Trend After Trump’s Previous Election
One year after Trump’s election, crude oil increased by over 45%.
7. Hong Kong Stock Trend After Trump’s Previous Election
One year after Trump’s election, the Hang Seng Index rose by more than 30%.
8. A-Share Trend After Trump’s Previous Election
Within a year of Trump’s inauguration, the CSI 300 increased by 19%.
The petrochemical, construction, and real estate sectors performed relatively well, while electronics, computers, and consumer services were relatively lagging. In the fourth quarter of 2016, driven by the recovery in real estate, the A-share market performed relatively well and ushered in a slow bull market. The petrochemical, construction, and real estate sectors, which are domestic demand and pro-cyclical sectors, performed relatively well, while the electronics, computers, and home appliances industries lagged behind. Overall, at that time, the market did not fully anticipate trade friction issues.
9. Equity-Biased Fund Trend After Trump’s Previous Election
Within a year of Trump’s last election, the equity-biased mixed fund index rose by 9.42%.
10. Domestic Bond Trend After Trump’s Previous Election
Three months after taking office, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 60 basis points.
U.S. Stocks: Medium-term fluctuations with an upward trend, but limited upside and increased volatility.
U.S. Treasury Bonds: High-certainty strategies, but continued volatility, mid- to short-duration U.S. Treasuries offer better value.
U.S. Dollar: Continuation of a relatively strong trend, supported by inflation properties and risk aversion sentiment.
Gold: May shift from positive to neutral, with gold prices fluctuating at high levels.
A-Shares: Neutral in the medium term, attention needed on domestic policies, structurally recommend balanced allocation between dividends and growth.
Hong Kong Stocks: Positioning at both ends amid fluctuations, focusing on policy dividends and balanced new economy.
Domestic Bonds: Extended low-level fluctuations, increased volatility, attention needed on opportunities in yield products after overshooting.
