**Introduction**
Recently, the hawkish policy expectations of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) have led to significant volatility in global financial markets, with the cryptocurrency market being no exception. After hitting an all-time high, Bitcoin saw a sharp correction, dropping from $104,800 on the 19th to $95,700 today, a decrease of more than 8%. This price correction triggered a large-scale market liquidation, with a total of $1.003 billion liquidated in the past 24 hours, affecting over 300,000 traders with substantial losses.
Despite the uncertainty in the short term, several technical analysts remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum, believing that the market adjustment may be a temporary pullback, and that there is still potential for future upward movement. Technical indicators such as the Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Extensions suggest that Bitcoin could break its all-time high of $166,000 by February 2025.
**Latest Price Action for Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH)**
| Cryptocurrency | Price | 24H Change | 24H Trading Volume | Market Cap | 7-Day Price Trend |
|—————-|——-|————|——————-|————|——————-|
| 
BTC | Bitcoin | $95,215.95 | -6.39% | $10.23 Billion | $188.16 Billion |
| 
ETH | Ethereum | $3,295.29 | -10.4% | $6.39 Billion | $39.63 Billion |
**Short-Term Bitcoin Correction and Bullish Signal from Bollinger Bands**
Bitcoin, after reaching an all-time high of $108,300 on the 17th, has faced a sharp correction. However, technical analysis suggests that this pullback might be part of a healthy market adjustment. John Bollinger, the creator of the well-known technical indicator Bollinger Bands, remarked that Bitcoin’s price movement has perfectly demonstrated the classic application of the Bollinger Bands. After undergoing a contraction phase, the price began moving along the upper band, which typically signals that the upward trend may continue.
Following a squeeze phase in the Bollinger Bands, the price usually chooses a direction to break out. The current trend indicates that Bitcoin is steadily moving upwards, which suggests that the market may still be in a bullish phase. While short-term price fluctuations are possible, technical indicators imply that the upward trend for Bitcoin is far from over.
**Fibonacci Extensions Forecast Bitcoin to Break $160,000**
In addition to the Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci Extensions are another critical tool used by analysts to predict future price movements. Technical analyst CryptoCon, using Fibonacci Extension analysis, pointed out that Bitcoin’s historical peak is near a Fibonacci Extension target price, further validating the effectiveness of this tool. Looking ahead, CryptoCon believes Bitcoin could break the $160,000 to $166,000 range by February 2025, setting a new market milestone.
He indicated that while the market may experience short-term pullbacks, as the bull market fully kicks in, the impact of these corrections will no longer be a major concern for investors. In contrast, the price target for February 2025 will be the key focus in the coming months. This prediction is based on Bitcoin’s current accelerating upward trend and the historical data of Fibonacci Extensions.
**VIX Fear Index Suggests Bitcoin May Bottom Out and Bounce Back**
Additionally, the surge in the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) has prompted discussions among analysts about Bitcoin potentially bottoming out and rebounding. VIX, which measures market fear, typically spikes during periods of high volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Historical data shows that when VIX increases significantly, it often signals that Bitcoin’s price may have hit a local bottom.
For instance, in February 2018, the VIX surged by 116%, and Bitcoin dropped by 16% to $6,891, but just 15 days later, it rebounded to over $11,000. A similar situation occurred in August 2024, when the VIX rose by 65%, Bitcoin’s price reached a low of $54,000, and then recovered to over $64,000 within weeks. The surge in VIX might indicate that Bitcoin’s price is poised for a rebound.
**Bitcoin Reserve Plan and Supercycle Theory**
Given the global economic environment and U.S. Federal Reserve policies, an increasing number of analysts are discussing the possibility of Bitcoin entering a “supercycle.” Particularly, with the push from the incoming U.S. President Trump, the establishment of Bitcoin reserves has become a focal point in the market. Trump has stated that he plans to sign an executive order or push for legislation on his first day in office, requiring the U.S. to purchase Bitcoin and collaborate with other governments to establish Bitcoin reserves.
This initiative could break Bitcoin’s traditional four-year “boom-and-bust cycle” and propel the market into a long-term upward “supercycle.” Economist Alex Krüger believes that Bitcoin’s situation mirrors gold’s performance in the 1970s when gold prices surged after the U.S. abandoned the gold standard. He argues that Bitcoin might also enter a similar supercycle, driving its price continuously upward.
However, some experts remain cautious. Behind every Bitcoin bull market is the narrative of “this time it’s different,” but history suggests that these supercycle theories often fail to sustain. Chris Brunsike, a partner at venture capital firm Placeholder, has described the Bitcoin supercycle theory as a “collective fantasy.” Therefore, investors need to approach the possibility of a supercycle rationally and avoid excessive optimism.
**SEC Approves Crypto ETFs: New Opportunities for the Crypto Market**
Recently, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) combining Bitcoin and Ethereum. This approval brings new investment opportunities to the cryptocurrency market. According to SEC approval documents, these ETFs will begin trading in January 2025, providing investors with a more diversified route for investing in crypto assets.
The introduction of these funds means that investing in Bitcoin and Ethereum will become more compliant and transparent, and is expected to attract more institutional investors into the market. Bloomberg analysts predict that the new ETFs will draw significant capital into the cryptocurrency market, further driving up the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
**Ethereum’s Outlook: Bitcoin’s Surge Could Push ETH Prices to New Heights**
In addition to Bitcoin, many analysts are also optimistic about Ethereum’s future price movement. Technical analyst Guy Turner forecasts that if Bitcoin’s price surpasses $200,000 by 2025, Ethereum’s price could also experience a significant rise, potentially breaking its all-time high of $14,600. Turner noted that as Bitcoin’s price increases, investor interest in Ethereum will likely intensify, propelling ETH into a price discovery phase.
Currently, Ethereum’s trading price stands at $3,686, but with Bitcoin’s continued rise, Ethereum could break its previous all-time high and enter a new upward cycle. Turner emphasized that Fibonacci Extension analysis shows that ETH could reach a key target price of $7,300, offering a reference for future investors.
**Conclusion**
Although the cryptocurrency market is experiencing certain short-term fluctuations, technical indicators and macroeconomic trends suggest that Bitcoin and Ethereum are poised for a new upward cycle. Tools like Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Extensions show the possibility of an upward trend, while discussions on the supercycle and Bitcoin reserve plans present new opportunities for the crypto market. Nevertheless, investors should remain cautious of macroeconomic uncertainties, carefully plan their investment strategies, and stay sensitive to market movements.
