Toncoin User Base Shrinks to 158 Million Whats Next for TON

CoinWorld reports:
Source: Chen Bailing is not Bailing
TON’s daily user count has plummeted from 5 million to 1.58 million – is the hype fading or is another wave of excitement on the horizon?
TON’s user base has seen a sharp decline, but past trends indicate the possibility of another explosive growth.
With 91% of the tokens controlled by large holders, TON faces concerns of centralization in bearish indicators.
According to data from IntoTheBlock, the daily active user count on the TON network has dropped sharply from over 5 million during its peak to 1.58 million.
This significant decline has raised questions about whether the previous hype is fading or if a new wave of excitement is about to emerge.
The historical records of TON’s daily active addresses show a series of rapid growth, often associated with specific events or broader market excitement. During the initial stage from late October to mid-December, user activity remained relatively stable without significant surges.
However, a gradual upward trend appeared from late December to mid-March, indicating an increasing user interest.
From mid-March to late April, the number of daily active addresses surged, possibly influenced by price increases and increased market interest. There were fluctuations from May to early July, characterized by brief peaks.
From late August to early October, there was another significant surge, reaching the highest level of this year.
However, user activity has recently decreased and stabilized at 1.58 million, although still higher than the early levels.
Price trends and concentration
As of the time of writing, the TON trading price is $5.26, down 0.34% in the past 24 hours and up 2.11% in the past week. The trading volume is $299.64 million, with a total market value of approximately $13.32 billion.
It is worth noting that 91% of the token supply is held by large holders, indicating a high level of concentration.
73% of holders are at a loss, with only 15% of holders profiting, indicating cautious market sentiment. The correlation with Bitcoin’s price is relatively low at 0.12, suggesting that TON’s trend is less influenced by Bitcoin’s price trend.
In the past week, the total trading volume exceeded $10 billion, but the net outflow reached $8.81 million, indicating that more TON left exchanges than entered.
Most on-chain indicators still show bearish sentiment
TON’s on-chain indicators show mostly bearish sentiment. The three bearish signals include “in-the-money” (-0.14), indicating lower profitability for holders; concentration (-0.04), indicating centralization; and large transactions (-0.23), indicating a decrease in large fund flow.
The only bullish indicator is net network growth (+2.97%), suggesting potential user expansion despite the current economic downturn.
Coinglass data shows that futures open interest has also experienced fluctuations. In early August, the open interest reached over $300 million, but it has since dropped to $214.18 million, with recent trading volume down by 1.99%.
Although current indicators suggest a cooling phase, past patterns indicate that TON’s user base can quickly expand during periods of renewed attention or market events.