Bitcoin’s upcoming halving has sparked a heated debate in the cryptocurrency market, with analysts struggling to predict the post-halving price. Onchain analysts remain hopeful for a bullish outcome, while predictions from technical analysts have been mixed. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the price movement but highlighted that traders have been taking profits, resulting in diminishing sell pressure.
CryptoQuant observed that short-term holders are cashing out as the price approaches market equivalence. This suggests that traders are not aiming for substantial profits that would incentivize them to hold onto the asset. The BTC network had previously seen high unrealized profits before the correction, which CryptoQuant attributed to the Middle East conflict and the slowed pace of Bitcoin ETF inflows.
IntoTheBlock, an analytics firm, noted that despite the decline in Bitcoin’s price, investor profitability remains stable. During the uptrend, approximately 97% of traders were holding profits, which is an uncommon and unsustainable trend. Vincent Maliepaard, the firm’s marketing director, emphasized that the decline was relatively minor, around 20%, and highlighted the surge in momentum as an indication of an imminent bullish trend.
However, analysts from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs expressed concerns about a potential bearish return post-halving. JPMorgan’s Nikolas Panigirtzoglou suggested that the market has already priced in the halving, with Bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted price compared to gold standing at around $45,000. Goldman Sachs acknowledged the historical pattern of Bitcoin hitting new highs after halving but remained skeptical, considering the possibility of hype surrounding this particular halving.
