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Bitcoin plunges and bounces back, regaining its position!
According to the latest poll conducted by Reuters, the results show that Harris leads with 46%, surpassing Trump’s 43%. Last week, Trump was leading with 50% compared to Harris’ 48%. Therefore, some off-site institutions may refer to this data. Of course, Trump is indeed leading by a wide margin on Polymarket, with a lead of 64.3% to 35.6%. Currently, many people are beginning to question whether the voters on Polymarket are mostly non-Americans.
Regardless, the fact that Trump has been surpassed in the polls definitely affects the cryptocurrency market, which is one of the reasons why large capital is starting to withdraw.
Yesterday, BTC continued to consolidate and pull back, with a pullback beyond expectations. There are no obvious negative factors, so it is purely a result of capital smashing the market. The market has been in a pullback phase for three consecutive days, indicating that it is still challenging to achieve an upward push to 70,000. There is tremendous selling pressure around the 70,000 mark. The sharp decline that started from 69,500 on Monday was also accompanied by high trading volume, and the market has been oscillating downward since then.
I expect there will be a period of consolidation around 66,000, during which the funds that left the market due to the uncertainty of the election still need time to return.
As for the future of the cryptocurrency market, I have the following opinion:
In the future, the market will still experience a slow bull run. You can understand it as BTC washing out the market through continuous oscillations, constantly absorbing chips and raising their value. Eventually, institutions will have control over BTC pricing. The future market is expected to:
1. Suddenly stop here, which is definitely not in line with common sense. Theoretically, after the bulldozer pattern, there should be a larger bullish candlestick.
2. There is the influence of the news about the U.S. election. Therefore, the manipulators may make moves before and after the election, causing the market situation to be postponed until November.
3. If the “King of Understanding” wins, he will promise to spend 100E to buy “big cake” (Bitcoin). This is a huge positive factor that will lead to an upward trend. Therefore, the sudden halt in the market washing out will have some tricks behind it.
4. Therefore, if there is a signal of a bottom in the short term, we should establish our short-term and trend positions together, and then look at the extension of the trend. If the trend is good, continue to hold the trend position. Otherwise, only short-term positions should be taken.
5. I really don’t know how high it can rise or how low it can fall. All I can tell you is that the upward trend has not changed, and 65,500 will be a good support level. Follow the trend, go against the small trend, manage expectations well, control risks, do everything we can, and leave the rest to the market. After all, in this market, none of us can control it.
There is a story widely circulated about a guy who bought a meme for $600 and turned it into nearly $2 million in a short period of time.
This story has sparked the interest of retail investors, making them think, “I also have $600, I can do it too!” But the reality is very different from what you may think.
1. First, I have conducted surveys before. Nearly 80% of retail investors lose in PVP (player versus player) trading. You need to ensure that you are not among the 80%.
2. Secondly, based on my personal experience in real trading, when a retail investor possesses 5% of the chips, the manipulators (whales) will not push up the price. Look at those memes with high market value, only a small percentage of chips are in circulation. The manipulators spend money and manpower to push up the price, and then let a retail investor empty the pool, is it possible?
3. In my battles with manipulators, I found that when a single address increases its position by 1% or 1.5%, smaller manipulators will stop pushing up the price. They will start shaking the market and grinding it down. If you don’t exit, the manipulators may abandon the market. Think about it, with your $600, whose money are you making in this zero-sum game?
4. Generally, manipulators will eat up to 90% of the chips before considering pushing up the price, and this is excluding the pool. The chips in the hands of retail investors are the poison for the manipulators and the wear and tear costs for them to manipulate the market. There aren’t many chips outside of the manipulators’ control.
There are also many people who say, “The heyday of the cryptocurrency market is over. It is really difficult to make money in the cryptocurrency market now. Bitcoin, the leader in the cryptocurrency market, has not outperformed Nvidia, the leader in the U.S. stock market, and platform coin BNB has not outperformed Coinbase stock. Ethereum has not even outperformed BNB.”
All I can say is that their approach is wrong. In the current market situation, short-term trading and holding stable coins is the best strategy!
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