Coin World Report:
Author: Crypto Wanderer, Source: X, @thecryptoskanda
Experienced market players often blame the market’s downturns on its failure to attract Web2 users, thus hindering new capital inflows. This narrative of “Mass Adoption” in crypto’s “Web3” products supposedly needing to cater to profit-oriented Web2 users is akin to claiming, “African children starve because you waste food in China” — emotionally resonant but illogical.
Mass Adoption – Who exactly constitutes the “Mass”?
It’s erroneous to broadly categorize them as traditional Web2 users. The “Mass” comprises diverse but classifiable individuals. For instance, a blind person doesn’t drive a domestic electric vehicle not due to lack of support for local products, but simply because they lack a driver’s license (lack of demand). Sustainable user attraction hinges on offering irreplaceable solutions to irreplaceable needs. Just as with cars, so too with crypto.
Whether one agrees or not, crypto is inherently limited. Its features (privacy, decentralization) derive from its core value — permissionlessness, which isn’t universally applicable. Permissionlessness primarily counters restrictions by banks, governments, and large corporations: if banks restrict account openings and payments, governments limit investments and gambling, and big companies censor speech, users will persist.
Those with needs are not the majority; most are conditioned by the system. Those who understand arbitrage, counter-establishment “marginalized” individuals — I call them “traders” (not black or white personalities but a spectrum of strengths and weaknesses) — form a minority critical for maintaining dominance.
They “talk business.” If the average person sees securing a bureaucratic position as selling themselves wholesale to an “entity,” then crypto appeals to those valuing pricing their time, energy, and networks — “selling themselves” at a fair rate. These individuals prioritize profit.
Have we already achieved Mass Adoption?
Considering this spectrum of “traders,” how many remain untouched by crypto? According to UN data, the global average annual income per adult is $23,000. Assuming 10% allocated to crypto regardless of activity, that’s $18.4 trillion for 8 billion people globally. Binance’s March 2024 spot trading volume of $112 billion suggests over $130 trillion annually with other exchanges. Roughly 30% remains untapped, indicating potential growth akin to the gambling industry’s annual 4.7% increase, akin to Federal Reserve rates.
Lack of new users isn’t imminent; the market approaches its actual TAM limit. Educated individuals in 2024 unaware of Bitcoin are rare.
Are you still aiming to “Mass Adopt” Web2 users? Most likely, those adoptable have already encountered crypto.
Stock market concerns aren’t the issue; high-frequency users are.
With a background in gambling, I know it’s one of the world’s largest industries. From a sector-wide perspective, the “Mass Adoption” logic doesn’t differentiate between incremental and stock markets — theoretically, all wealthy individuals are potential clients due to their gambling inclinations. Gambling grows with global inflation.
Offline gambling is regional, whereas crypto is global, immune to regional tourism impacts. Hence, crypto and gambling align industrially. If a year sees poor results, it’s not for lack of new users but fewer bets from existing ones.
Two main casino clientele: regulars mastering specific games like slots and baccarat (mostly elderly, high-frequency), and VIP rooms comprising 80% of casino revenue (large bettors).
Crypto’s growth hinges on nurturing high-frequency users and VIPs.
Mass Admission rather than Mass Adoption
How many understand slot payouts? Play baccarat? Master Texas Hold’em? Learning these costs more than mastering crypto: complex rules, risk appetite, entry barriers (membership, coding).
Why doesn’t the gambling industry have “adoption” issues? It provides an irreplaceable solution to an irreplaceable need (gambling). Casinos explicitly tell clients: come to win. You’re admitted to gamble, not to satisfy your daily needs.
Imagine a casino promoting a social network for gamblers to spend more at their whiskey bar instead of aiming to win — from offline to online, accepting diverse payments, improving slot themes and UX, but the core goal remains unchanged.
Similarly, Crypto/Web3’s mandate should be clear: “Come here to make money!” Admit the world’s “traders” to try their hand, learning crypto’s rules. Their path to profit involves financial games (trading, staking, borrowing). Everything revolves around this logic.
Those disregarding the rules (e.g., not understanding project fundamentals, following KOLs for hype) or playing poorly (leading to bankruptcy) are eliminated. What remains are adept users, forming muscle memory high-frequency users, with the best entering VIP rooms.
Development involves attracting more participants quicker, with more diverse challenges, larger bets, sustained games, and providing identity-flaunting commodities (casinos sell luxury watches, Crypto has NFTs?). This involves project selection and growth strategies.
Conclusion
Mass Admission is the core logic behind my project assessments, even my primary consideration. Using this logic, consider why memes, inscriptions, Solana are trending, not the entire ETH range (except Base), VC coins, or RWAs? Why is the shortage in developers, not “users”?
I trust you’ll have varied answers.
