StoneX’s Bullish thesis hinges on pending $4.2 billion Equiniti acquisition

StoneX Financial initiated coverage of Bullish on Monday, November 9, 2026, with a Buy rating and a $42 price target, making the exchange’s pending Equiniti acquisition the centerpiece of its investment thesis.

At the time of The Block’s report, Bullish shares were trading above $22 in early-morning trading, up 2.9% on the day but down nearly 50% over six months. The report described StoneX’s target as implying roughly 97% upside. That figure represents the analyst’s target-based assessment, not a guaranteed return.

A tokenization infrastructure bet

The proposed $4.2 billion transaction includes $1.85 billion in assumed debt and about $2.35 billion in Bullish shares. StoneX analyst Mark Palmer said the acquisition was expected to close in January. Regulatory approval remained pending.

If completed, the deal would give Bullish a transfer agency business serving nearly 3,000 issuers, 15,000 corporate clients and 20 million shareholders, according to Palmer’s note. Equiniti processes $500 billion in annual payments.

“Every big market structure shift needs a toll booth, and BLSH is buying one,” Palmer wrote. He said Equiniti acts as transfer agent of record for about 30% of the S&P 500 and half the FTSE 100. His thesis is that this position could give Bullish a role at the point where conventional share records become tokens.

That is a bet on infrastructure and adoption—not evidence that the projected tokenization market has already arrived.

Large projections, a small existing equity market

The note put tokenized equities at about $2.1 billion onchain, compared with $151 trillion in global equity value. Projections cited by StoneX suggested the broader tokenized asset market could reach $9.4 trillion by 2030. That forecast covers more than equities and remains uncertain.

Palmer also pointed to Bullish’s existing operations: second-quarter adjusted revenue rose 62% year over year to $92.6 million, while subscription, services and other revenue reached a record $62.7 million.

Completion and adoption remain the key risks

StoneX identified an unforeseen delay or failure of the Equiniti acquisition as a risk to its thesis. It also flagged slower tokenization adoption and competition from Nasdaq, DTCC, NYSE, Securitize and Superstate.

Separately, Bullish appointed former New York Stock Exchange President Stacey Cunningham as its president while expanding its issuer-sponsored tokenization business across Solana, Aptos and Ethereum.

The distinction is between an announced strategy and a completed business transformation: the acquisition was still pending, and the market-growth figures were projections rather than realized demand.

Original publication time: November 10, 2026, at 00:06:03 UTC+8 (November 9, 2026, at 16:06:03 UTC).

Original article: The Block